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The Channel

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Trade Idea of the Day Presented by: The Fly

Wells Fargo downgrades Macquarie Infrastructure despite 41% pullback yesterday

Wells Fargo analyst Jonathan Reeder downgraded Macquarie Infrastructure to Market Perform from Outperform and cut his price target for the shares to $45 from $80. The stock closed yesterday down 41%, or $26.21, to $37.41. The analyst says he struggles to come up with a near- or even... Read More

House Prices: NAR Median Prices vs Case-Shiller Index

During the housing bubble and subsequent bust, I noted that the median house price could be distorted by the mix of houses sold. I preferred to use the repeat sales indexes from the FHFA, Case-Shiller and Corelogic (and others). Now that most of the distortion from the bubble is behind us, I thought I'd take a look at the median (and mean) house price data for existing home sales from the NAR, compared to the Case-Shiller National index. The first graph show the NAR existing home sales median and mean prices since 1999 (Not Seasonally Adjusted)...

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades

Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. UPS (UPS) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank with analyst Amit Mehrotra saying UPS's capex guidance was worse than even the most bearish expectations. 2. Echo Global (ECHO) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley with analyst Ravi Shanker saying he believes brokers like Echo deserve a "mid-teens multiple at best" as he thinks the mandate for...

Credit Markets Are Flashing Red

Despite rebounds in US (and less so European) equities and drops in both regions' 'VIX' measures, the last few days have seen an ominous reawakening in credit markets that is far more systemically concerning than a volatility ETN... European credit spreads are back near cycle wides. And US HY spreads are pushing back towards last week's wides. And it's not just HY credit, US investment grade credit spreads are starting to crack wider. Fund outflows in HY and IG resumed their 2018 trend yesterday. And credit remains notably decoupled from stocks...

WTI/RBOB Jump After DOE Confirms Surprise Crude Draw, Production Slows

Following last night's surprise crude draw (from API), and USD weakness, WTI/RBOB rallied overnight, but faded into the DOE data. However, as DOE confirmed API's reported surprise crude draw (-1.616mm) and production slipped very modestly, prices jumped. API Crude -907k (+2.9mm exp) Cushing -2.644mm Gasoline +1.644mm Distillates -3.563mm DOE Crude -1.616mm (+2.35mm exp) Cushing -2.664mm Gasoline +261k (+742k exp) Distillates -2.422mm (-1.1mm exp)...

On The Fly: Top five analyst upgrades

Catch up on today's top five analyst upgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Palo Alto Networks (PANW) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Cleveland Research with the firm saying it's channel partner checks indicate favorable revenue/billings growth in the low-20% range, versus high teens previously, and the product refresh could be a source of upside with increased hardware growth. 2. Verisk Analytics (VRSK) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral...

Why The Next Oil Boom Will Be Fueled By Blockchain

Big Oil is due for a disruption. The world’s most important industry has been carrying on without any significant changes in its day to day routine for far too long. But now, the new tech on the block has its sights set on the multi-trillion-dollar oil and gas sector. It’s official: Blockchain technology has infiltrated Big Oil. The hype behind blockchain has reached a full-blown frenzy...

AIA: "Architecture billings continue growth into 2018"

2018 started on a strong note for architecture firms, as the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) saw its highest January score since 2007. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the January ABI score was 54.7, up from a score of 52.8 in the previous month. This score reflects an increase in design services provided by U.S. architecture firms (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 61.1, down from a reading of 62.0 the previous month...

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades

Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Capital One (COF) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Nomura Instinet with analyst Bill Carcache saying he believes the benefit of improving credit is now fully discounted in the shares and he sees "little room" for positive earnings revisions given the company's slowing sales growth. 2. Lionsgate (LGF.A, LGF.B) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein...

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