Is This The Chart That Scared Bernanke Straight?
With the confusion over Bernanke's comments - "have no fear as the economy is bad enough that the Taper will never come" confused with "the economy is picking-up and that's great so we don't need the Fed anymore" - one has to ask, as we have numerous times, is there another reason for the Fed to start the ball rolling on the Taper talk? In the last few weeks, the Treasury market's yields have risen notably but much more critically, the fails-to-deliver has surged.
This critical indicator of both collateral shortages and technical carry trade unwinds is a little-discussed indicator of just how broken the market is thanks to the overwhelming ownership of the Fed. It's getting worse - as Barclays warns the weakness in bonds is feeding on itself as more people want to short and so the need to borrow from the Fed (as dealer inventory is so low) increases and raises the cost (special-ness) of that short.
Simply put, the main reason the Fed is tapering has nothing to do with the economy and everything to do with the TBAC presentation (rehypothecation and collateral shortages) and that the US is now running smaller deficits!!!
Source: NY Fed