Stocks Stuck Ahead Of Postponed Payrolls
Overnight global markets have gone decidedly nowhere, in expectation of the long-overdue September payroll report, and seemingly oblivious of the Goldman pre-announcement all clear that "Any positive number will be discounted because it came before the DC theatrics and if it’s weak it confirms that tapering should be put off longer." In other words, both the September, and accompanying July and August revisions (recall it was the revisions where the August NFP number ended the FOMC's taper talk) are meaningless because everything will be spun bullish. For those who do care - mostly headline reacting HFT algos - here is the summary: consensus is for 180k (unemployment rate unchanged at 7.3%). Note that the survey period for today’s payrolls report was prior to the shutdown which started on October 1st. As for how the amusingly named "market" will react to the news: see Goldman quote above, or better yet: just call the NYFed trading desk.
On today's docket there isn’t much else on the calendar aside from the US payroll report which is due at 8:30 am Eastern. It’s a busy day for corporate earnings as 30 S&P500 constituents report today with names like Lockheed Martin (before market). The Richmond Fed manufacturing survey and construction spending are the other data releases of note.
Overnight bulletin summary from BBG and Ran
- The September nonfarm payrolls report will be released today, eleven days later than originally scheduled, after a bipartisan agreement was reached to reopen the US government.
- Estimates range from 100k to 256k; A payrolls number of 175k or less, supported by “flabby” earnings/hours worked and August revised lower by 25k or more, would drive the biggest rally in Treasuries, FTN strategist Jim Vogel wrote in a note yesterday
- According to policy adviser, China's central bank may tighten policy slightly in response to rising inflation.
- Barclays cut Japan Q3 GDP forecast to an annual +0.3% from +2.2% citing sluggish Japan consumption and exports.
- Britain’s budget deficit narrowed more than economists forecast in September as the housing-market recovery boosted stamp duty and rising spending lifted value-added tax
- Home prices in China’s four major cities jumped the most since January 2011, heightening concerns a bubble is forming as the government refrains from introducing more property curbs that would hinder economic growth
- Bank of America Corp., sued by U.S. attorneys in August over an $850m mortgage bond, faces three additional Justice Department civil probes over MBS, according to two people with direct knowledge of the situation
- The frantic weeks before the start of Obamacare were marked by a chaotic effort in which officials failed to complete exhaustive testing of the program’s website in a push to begin signups by Oct. 1, according to people involved in the rollout
- Obama sought to reassure French President Francois Hollande about the countries’ relations after a report that the NSA eavesdropped on millions of phone calls inside France
- Sovereign yields mostly lower, EU peripheral spreads narrow. Asian equities mixed, Nikkei gains 0.1%; European markets and U.S. equity-index futures little changed. WTI crude and gold lower, copper gains
Market Re-Cap from RanSquawk