The Complete, Unabridged Confusion Over The Fed's [December|January|March] Taper

Bloomberg has been kind enough to summarize the epic confusion gripping the sellside on the topic of the Taper, which once again everyone thought would not take place until 2014, and now there is palpable panic may hit as soon as next week. Kudos to the Fed on its "transparent" communication strategy.


Below is Bloomberg's recap of the main viewpoints on when FOMC will start to Taper, with estimates ranging from FOMC’s Dec. 17-18 meeting in Washington to Jan. or March, based on published research.


Barclays



  • Fed will wait until March to taper


BMO



  • Do not expect “Yuletide Taper”


BNP



  • QE to end by early 2015


BoT-Mitsubishi



  • Fed should take immediate action on QE taper

  • Fed officials dragging feet on QE exit


Capital Economics



  • Jobs data points to tapering this month

  • QE tapering this month “very close call”


Citi



  • Expectations for Fed tapering in Dec. increase in poll

  • Fed to discuss tapering in “concrete” way


 


CRT



  • Fed “apprehensive” about impact of tapering


DB



  • USD to benefit as jobs data seals Dec. taper


GMP



  • Payrolls “not good enough” for Dec. taper


GS



  • Jobs data strong, still expect March taper


HFE



  • Payroll gain points to taper as soon as next month


ING



  • Jobs data suggests tapering is closer


JPMorgan



  • Nov. jobs report “smells a little like tapering”

  • Fed cut to IOER rate would complicate communications


Miller Tabak



  • Drop in jobless rate signals Dec. QE taper


Mizuho



  • Economy not yet ripe for tapering


Morgan Stanley



  • Fed to taper in March, cut UR threshold to 6%


MUFJ



  • Aug.-Nov. labor market data supports Dec. taper


Natixis



  • U.S. economy’s fragility urges Fed caution


Newedge



  • Fed could go beyond tapering next week


Nomura



  • 37% See Fed tapering next week

  • Expect no Dec. tapering


Pimco’s Gross



  • Odds of Fed tapering are 50% in Dec., clear that Fed wants out of QE


Renaissance



  • Fed will wait to taper in 1Q instead of Dec.


Sunrise



  • Taper-tightening link looks stronger on payrolls


TD



  • Fed’s tapering-isn’t-tightening message begins to resonate

  • Odds of Jan. tapering now above 50%


* * *


Good luck.

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