Dissecting The Dow Jones Industrial Average For Direction

which waySteven Bauer: After review of all the Dow 30 component Companies, these five Companies are amongst those that contribute to the suggestion that the very old Bull General Market is deteriorating meaningfully. It is always a slow process of topping a multi-year bull market. It therefore requires much patience and discipline. Doing your homework / analytics each day over the years helps more than you might think.


Of the 30 component Companies in the Dow Industrials, currently 6 are Losers and 24 remain Bullish. For reference, just six months ago there was only one Loser. The “Losers” are increasing and those currently Bullish Companies are looking very questionable. My Forecasts suggest….


Forecasting the General Market for me is fun. I use my Fundamental – Valuations and Cycle Analysis and Forecasting Methodology along with the 30 Dow Industrial Component Companies and their respective Industry Groups. I use the same procedures with several broader based indices for verification and comparative analytics. With a brief narrative and rather simple graphics / charts, I will attempt to share how I go about getting consistently positive results.


My most current monthly composite article with a table for all 30 of the Dow Companies can be read here.


Fundamental Valuation is foundational to all securities research and it, like the Marketplace itself has changed notably in the past few years. What used to be a very mechanical mathematical process is now not just a science, it is also an art requiring much right-brain talent. That even surprises me!


Cycle Analysis for me means identifying Bullish and Bearish Primary and Secondary Inflection Points for the General Market, Sectors, Industry Groups, Commodities, Companies and ETFs. Yes, it can be done and this series articles will share how I go about the task. My specific articles and graphics on Cycles may be of interest.


Forecasting is a tool that I use primarily because it offers me what I call “lead time.” That means, I have time to “Cherry Pick” the Best of the Best for Bullish Cycles and the Worst of the Worst for Bearish Cycles.


I have chosen the Dow 30 Industrial Companies to share with you my expertise with all securities. It is the easiest job you can give to a financial analyst. That is because there is an over-abundance of accurate information and data available for each Company. In today’s world, the Dow 30 has more words published each day than a person can possibly absorb. One comment about the above “accurate information” remark: One of the biggest problems in the Marketplace today (and is getting worse) is the false and misleading information disseminated by many companies, Wall Street, the financial media and a few peer bloggers. I hope I can provide clarity for you to profit by.


The Dow 30 represents about 33% of the total market-cap of the world’s universe of companies. At present, the NYSE has about 3,200 listed companies to choose from. And, the Nasdaq sports about 6,000 companies. My Universe of ETFs is over 250 strong covering most all Indices, Sectors and Industry Groups.



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