Apparel Retailers: It’s Time To Face Reality

retail etfSteven Bauer: The Apparel Retailers Industry Groups is one of several with in the Retail / Consumer Services Sector that is breaking down. It is clear from my Forecasting Analytics that over the past several months that there has been notable deterioration in this Industry as well as the Sector. Knowing this it is a matter of close monitoring of all the many component companies within any grouping such as Apparel Retailers. When there are an increasing number of companies breaking down, it soon becomes very clear on the graphic or chart for that Industry Group. With this in hand Investment decision-making (Buy / Sell / Hold) becomes quite easy.

The Retail / Consumer Service Market Sectors still have positive Companies and ETFs that are doing well. The Apparel Retailers Industry Group is one of those that has turned the corner to be Un-Favorable. My Forecasts suggest that the good times of the past are waning.

I do have only an Initial Bearish “Warning” in place. This level of warning is only activated when I see some possibilities of again taking profits as being the current best investment strategy. When it moves to a “Strong” Bearish Warning it has (past tense) already been costly to have held many of the component companies.

I continuously preach that Selectivity is what profitable investing is all about. When buying I select the current best and when selling or shorting I select the current worst.

Staying on top of all of this is very time consuming, and that is an understatement. In an ever-changing world of economics is mandatory these days. Some do their jobs well and others do not, it is just that simple.

A Special Note for Seniors / Retired & Income & Growth Investors

My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior dividend and growth results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients. Retailing companies often provide very good dividend payments and in good times they also offer growth of your investment dollars. Unfortunately, my current forecasts are not going in the right direction with regard to growth of your principle. At these times in the ever cycling of the stock market I suggest that: a) a focus on selling is the best and most prudent strategy; b) holding cash, from the sale of selected un-favorable Retailing companies is simply – “Investing Wisely.”


The Table below shares several of my Component Industry Group Indicators and ETFs of the overall Apparel Retailers (Retailing) Industry. At this time they are not doing well, with a clear negative variances or divergence in my Analytics of how they Forecast.

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Note: There are many more combinations of the above information in my Forecast before any investment decision can be prudently made. My Notes for Table will offer help to understand my Methodology of “Investing Wisely.” I hope this will provide you with profitable guidance.

Prudent Investment Decisions

Is it too late to Sell? Will there be better times to Buy? What about Holding? These three questions have to do with how I have made my living for over 50 years. Prudent decisions is what it is all about. At this time, the answers are: No / Yes and Selectively.

Buying long should never be done other than when there is clearly plenty of up-side. You just might want to wait until there is the next Bullish General Market / Retail Inflection Point to do so. My work/analytics starts with Forecasting and ends with very selective Formal Recommendations to Buy/Sell and Short/Cover. In between it is a matter of holding cash and waiting for the next General Market / Bullish or Bearish Inflection Point to invest your money wisely.

(...)Click here to continue reading the original article: Apparel Retailers: It’s Time To Face Reality [J.C. Penney Company, Inc., Merrill Lynch Retail HOLDRS ETF]

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