Lawler: The Household Conundrum, Part I: The CPS/ASEC Data - InvestingChannel

Lawler: The Household Conundrum, Part I: The CPS/ASEC Data

From housing economist Tom Lawler: The Household Conundrum, Part I: The CPS/ASEC Data

A major challenge facing housing analysts is the lack of any timely and accurate time series of the characteristics of the housing market, including both the number of and the characteristics of occupied or vacant housing units. Instead, analysts are faced with numerous and often conflicting household and/or housing stock estimates based on different surveys conducted by different areas of the Census Bureau.

For analysts trying to assess which, if any, of the various surveys (which are based on samples) provides the “best” estimates of the number of and the characteristics of US households, one approach is to compare the survey estimates to counts from the decennial Census, which attempts to provide complete coverage of the population, households, and the housing stock, as well as all of their characteristics.

While some might think that such a comparison is straightforward, in fact it can be a little tricky. First, household estimates (totals and/or characteristics) are based on either population estimates or housing stock estimates available at the time the survey results are published. While initial population and housing stock estimates for any given year are almost always revised – sometimes by a sizable amount subsequent to the compilation of decennial Census counts – household estimates for those years are typically not revised. As such, the historical time series on households from most surveys are not consistent with current population/housing stock estimates.

For example, for the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS/ASEC), the household estimates for 1990, 2000, and 2010 (coinciding with decennial Census years) are not based on population counts from the decennial Census in those years, but instead are based on pre-Decennial Census estimates. And, in each year’s case, the population estimates used in the CPS/ASEC were significantly different from decennial Census counts. As such, CPS/ASEC household estimates for those years need to be adjusted to reflect what they would have been if updated population estimates had been available.

Further complicating these comparisons is the fact the Decennial Census counts themselves are not perfect. In fact, subsequent to each Decennial Census the Census Bureau conducts two separate studies to assess the coverage and accuracy of the Census counts: one designed to assess the coverage and accuracy of the population count, and the other to assess the coverage and accuracy of the housing stock count. As such, one should probably adjust the “official” Decennial Census household counts when comparing them to the “adjusted” CPS/ASEC estimates.

I have attempted to make all of the adjustments to the best of my ability, and the adjusted results are shown in the following table.

Total Households by Age Group, Adjusted CPS/ASEC (000’s)
  1990 2000 2010 2000-1990 2010-2000 2010-1990
Total 93,424 106,434 118,760 13,010 12,326 25,336
15-24 5,361 5,844 6,325 483 481 964
25-34 20,811 18,987 19,173 -1,824 186 -1,638
35-44 20,691 24,025 21,729 3,334 -2,296 1,038
45-54 14,371 21,212 25,113 6,841 3,901 10,742
55-64 12,243 13,888 20,777 1,645 6,889 8,534
65-74 11,568 11,641 13,400 73 1,759 1,832
75+ 8,379 10,837 12,243 2,458 1,406 3,864
Total Households by Age Group, Adjusted Decennial Census (000’s)
  1990 2000 2010 2000-1990 2010-2000 2010-1990
Total 92,434 105,809 116,752 13,375 10,943 24,318
15-24 5,283 5,551 5,403 268 -148 120
25-34 20,407 18,355 17,963 -2,052 -392 -2,444
35-44 20,515 24,043 21,298 3,528 -2,745 783
45-54 14,392 21,359 24,915 6,967 3,556 10,523
55-64 12,253 14,291 21,347 2,038 7,056 9,094
65-74 11,250 11,544 13,509 294 1,965 2,259
75+ 8,334 10,666 12,319 2,332 1,653 3,985
Homeowners by Age Group, Adjusted CPS/ASEC (000’s)
  1990 2000 2010 2000-1990 2010-2000 2010-1990
Total 59,623 71,620 79,684 11,997 8,064 20,061
15-24 820 1,232 1,446 412 214 626
25-34 9,223 8,772 8,633 -451 -139 -590
35-44 13,754 16,200 14,232 2,446 -1,968 478
45-54 10,929 16,252 18,455 5,323 2,203 7,526
55-64 9,847 11,139 16,326 1,292 5,187 6,479
65-74 9,101 9,593 10,984 492 1,391 1,883
75+ 5,949 8,432 9,608 2,483 1,176 3,659
Homeowners by Age Group, Adjusted Decennial Census (000’s)
  1990 2000 2010 2000-1990 2010-2000 2010-1990
Total 59,246 69,927 76,140 10,681 6,213 16,894
15-24 905 992 872 87 -120 -33
25-34 9,281 8,350 7,562 -931 -788 -1,719
35-44 13,625 15,892 13,283 2,267 -2,609 -342
45-54 10,874 15,982 17,840 5,108 1,858 6,966
55-64 9,792 11,385 16,536 1,593 5,151 6,744
65-74 8,889 9,369 10,856 480 1,487 1,967
75+ 5,881 7,958 9,191 2,077 1,233 3,310



There are a few things worth noting. For 1990 the adjusted CPS/ASEC household and homeowner counts are not too far off from the adjusted Decennial Census Counts either in total or by age. By 2000, however, the CPS/ASEC homeowner counts were significantly higher than the Decennial Census Counts, and that gap widened sharply in 2010. That “gap” was especially striking for estimates of young adult homeowners, where CPS/ASEC estimates massively exceeded decennial Census estimates. CPS/ASEC estimates of total household growth from 2000 to 2010 also were significantly higher than growth shown in the Decennial Census, with most of the difference coming in growth estimates for younger adults. The rather sizable disparities between CPS/ASEC estimates of younger adult households (and even more so for homeowners) and Decennial Census estimates for 2010 is rather disturbing, and suggests that the CPS/ASEC may not provide a particular good measure of the living arrangements of “young” adults.

This comparison also suggests that housing economists looking either to analyze past household/homeowner trends by age, or to project future household growth and homeowner growth by age, should probably not use the CPS/ACS estimates to produce such analysis or forecasts. In addition, people looking for household projections should be extremely leery of projections based on CPS/ASEC data (the recently released from the Joint Center for Housing Studies comes to mind).

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