Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increases in June
Note: This index is possibly a leading indicator for new non-residential Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment, except manufacturing.
From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Moves Higher in June
The Dodge Momentum Index took another step forward in June, increasing 1.1% to 141.1 (2000=100) from its revised May reading of 139.6. The Momentum Index is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. June’s lift was due to a 4.8% advance by the institutional component of the Momentum Index, while the commercial component fell 1.3%. The Momentum Index has exhibited substantial strength since mid-2016, with the institutional and commercial components trading off as the driver of growth almost on a month-to-month basis. Although the commercial component of the Momentum Index declined in the latest month it is 11.8% higher than it was in June 2016, while the institutional component is 9.5% above a year ago. The overall rising trend for both sectors continues to suggest that construction activity will remain healthy through the end of the year.
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This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 141.1 in June, up from 139.6 in May.
The index is up solidly year-over-year.
According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year". This suggests further increases in CRE spending over the next year.