Market missing risk Amazon poses to UPS, FedEx air volumes, says Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker said investors so far have been focusing on Amazon's (AMZN) last-mile efforts and build-out of its internal logistics network, but he thinks the market has been missing the potential risk posed to UPS (UPS) and FedEx (FDX) air volumes from the e-commerce giant's in-house Express Air network. While "Amazon Air's" rollout is in the early stages, Shanker already estimates a 200-300 bps impact on the Domestic Air volume growth of UPS and FedEx and expects more erosion. Amazon Air could put 2% of potential revenue for UPS and FedEx at risk in 2018, and Shanker sees that growing to over 10% by 2025, he tells investors. Following the Amazon Air analysis, the analyst lowered his price target for UPS to $87 from $92 and for FedEX shares to $230 from $240. Shanker keeps an Equal Weight rating on FedEx and an Underweight rating on UPS.

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