Slumping Population Growth, Soaring Tech Innovation, Low Capital Investment... Within Months World War II Began
In the holiday spirit, One River Asset Management's Lindsay Politi will devote the next three weeks to an arc focusing on the past, present, and finally her thoughts about the future. Here goes Part I: Ghosts of Investments Past
Demographics are Destiny? The December 1938 keynote address to the American Economic Association was titled “Economic Progress and Declining Population Growth.” Slowing population growth combined with increasing technological innovation would mean perpetually low capital investment. Secular stagnation, disinflation, and underemployment were inescapable. Within months World War II began. By the end of 1941, inflation was 10%. There was capital investment of historic proportions. There was a population boom. Even seemingly inescapable trends can change more abruptly than we dare imagine.
How We Got Here: Say’s Law states that supply creates its own demand, so a secular stagnation, a general deficit in demand, cannot exist. Yet they seem to occur periodically. Irving Fisher said we’re perceiving the problem incorrectly, that “the common notion of over-production is mistaking too little money for too much goods.” Friedman tells us “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” Samuelson taught Bernanke that negative interest rates would make any investment profitable, thus creating enough demand that rates wouldn’t be able to stay negative very long. So, the solution seemed obvious: more money.
The Other View: John Hobson theorized that under-consumption is a natural stage of capitalism. People consume out of income, but only fractionally because they also save. The savings turns into capital investment, which boosts supply. As this trend plays out, capital and supply grow and, on a relative basis, income and demand shrink. Credit can only exacerbate the problem because credit most naturally goes to investment, not consumption, adding to the imbalance. The ultimate resolution is for incomes to increase faster than asset prices (or asset prices to decline more precipitously than incomes).
Hobson’s Critique: What might Hobson think of the monetarist response to secular stagnation? I imagine he’d point out that trying to increase credit for investment is counterproductive because investment further increases supply, exacerbating the supply demand imbalance. Then perhaps he’d point out that inflating asset prices through QE only exacerbates the capital/income divide that is the central cause of secular stagnation. Maybe then he’d point out that, especially for a demographically older population, reducing interest income for the one group most likely to convert savings to consumption only further exacerbates the income deficit. QE likely exacerbated, not alleviated, the problem.