Opinions Uncensored

Wednesday: Existing Home Sales, FOMC Minutes

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Inch Higher Ahead of Fed MinutesMortgage rates were just slightly higher today, leaving them roughly in the center of a range that's persisted since mid-November. During that time the average top-tier conventional 30yr fixed rate has...

Chemical Activity Barometer increases in February

Note: This appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production.From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Continues Steady Climb; Consumer and Business Confidence Strengthening The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the...

Peak Renter

It was six years ago that we started discussing the turnaround for apartments. Then, in January 2011, I attended the NMHC Apartment Strategies Conference in Palm Springs, and the atmosphere was very positive.The drivers were 1) very low new supply, and 2) strong demand (favorable demographics,...

Mortgage Debt as Percent of GDP

Yesterday I excerpted from a post I wrote in February 2005 (yes, 12 years ago).In that 2005 post, I included a graph of household mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. Several readers asked if I could update the graph.First, from 2005:The following chart shows household mortgage debt as a % of...

Monday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of Feb 19, 2017• Post from 2005: Mortgage Debt and the "Recovery"• Demographics and GDPFrom CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P futures are up 4, and DOW futures are up 29 (fair value). Oil prices were down slightly over the last week with WTI...

Post from 2005: Mortgage Debt and the "Recovery"

Here are some excerpts from a post I wrote in February 2005 (hard to believe this was 12 years ago).Note: I think I've improved the graphs since then!  From 2005:The following chart shows household mortgage debt as a % of GDP. Although mortgage debt has been increasing for years, the last...

Don't like the data? Change it!

From the WSJ: Trump Administration Considers Change in Calculating U.S. Trade DeficitThe Trump administration is considering changing the way it calculates U.S. trade deficits, a shift that would make the country’s trade gap appear larger than it had in past years ...The leading idea under...

Demographics and GDP

Two years ago I wrote: Demographics and GDP: 2% is the new 4%. As I noted, "One simple way to look at the change in GDP is as the change in the labor force, times the change in productivity. If the labor force is growing quickly, GDP will be higher with the same gains in productivity. And the...