Opinions Uncensored

Q4 GDP Forecasts: High-1s, Low-2s, 2018 Annual GDP around 2.8%

The BEA has announced that the Q4 advanced GDP report will be combined with the 2nd estimate of GDP, and will be released on Feb 28th.From Merrill Lynch: Weak retail sales data and inventory build caused a 0.8pp decline in our 4Q GDP tracking estimate to 1.5% from 2.3% [Feb 14 estimate]emphasis...

MBA: The Unemployment Rate and Mortgage Delinquency Rate

An interesting chart from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA): Last week, MBA Research released fourth quarter of 2018 results of its National Delinquency Survey (NDS). The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one‐to‐four‐unit residential properties was 4.06 percent – down 41 basis...

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-year

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 16 February The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 10-16 February 2019, according to data from STR.In comparison with the week of 11-17 February 2018,...

Comments on January Existing Home Sales

Earlier: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.94 million in January A few key points:1) The key for housing - and the overall economy - is new home sales, single family housing starts and overall residential investment. Unfortunately this key data has been delayed due to the government...

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.94 million in January

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Drop 1.2 Percent in JanuaryExisting-home sales experienced a minor drop for the third consecutive month in January, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Of the four major U.S. regions, only the Northeast saw an uptick in sales activity last month..

Philly Fed Mfg "Weakened" in February

From the Philly Fed: February 2019 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Manufacturing conditions in the region weakened this month, according to firms responding to the February Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments fell into...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 216,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending February 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 216,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 239,000. The 4-week moving average was 235,750, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's unrevised...