Opinions Uncensored

Monday: NY Fed Mfg Survey, Homebuilder Survey

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of December 16, 2018Monday:• At 8:30 AM ET: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 21.0, down from 23.3.• At 10:00 AM: The December NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of  61, up from 60..

Schedule for Week of December 16, 2018

The key economic reports this week are November Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd estimate of Q3 GDP, and November Personal income and outlays.For manufacturing, the December New York, Philly and Kansas City Fed surveys, will be released this week.Also, the FOMC meets this week and...

Oil Rigs Declined Slightly, More Expected

A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on December 14, 2018:• Oil rigs fell, -4 to 873• Horizontal oil rigs also declined, -4 to 767• Breakeven to add rigs fell to around $75 WTI compared to $51.20 WTI on the screen as of the writing of this report.• The model...

Q4 GDP Forecasts: High 2s

From Merrill Lynch:Core retail sales popped 0.9% mom in Nov with net upward revisions. Industrial production climbed 0.6% driven by utilities. These data boosted 4Q GDP tracking by 0.4pp to 2.9% qoq saar. [Dec 14 estimate].emphasis addedAnd from the Altanta Fed: GDPNowThe GDPNow model...

Industrial Production Increased 0.6% in November

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity UtilizationIndustrial production rose 0.6 percent in November after moving down 0.2 percent in October; the index for October was previously reported to have edged up 0.1 percent. In November, manufacturing production was unchanged, the output of...

Retail Sales increased 0.2% in November

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.2 percent from October to November (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.2 percent from November 2017.From the Census Bureau report:Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2018, adjusted for seasonal variation and...

Friday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production

Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for November will be released.  The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in retail sales.• At 9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for November. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in Industrial Production, and for...