Opinions Uncensored

Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices

CR Note: This is a repeat of earlier posts with updated graphs.A few key points:1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern.3) Even though distressed sales are down significantly, the seasonal...

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 47 states in March

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for March 2018. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 49 states and decreased in one, for a three-month diffusion index of 96. In the past month, the indexes increased in 47 states, decreased in one, and remained stable in two, for a one-month diffusion index of 92.
emphasis added...

Chemical Activity Barometer "Eases" in April

Note: This appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production.From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Eases Following Six Consecutive Monthly Gains; Trends Suggest Growth into Early 2019The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created...

"Mortgage Rates Push Farther Into 4-Year Highs"

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Push Farther Into 4-Year HighsMortgage rates moved somewhat higher again today, thus pushing them...

Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in February

Here is the earlier post on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 6.3% year-over-year in FebruaryIt has been eleven years since the bubble peak. In the Case-Shiller release this morning, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 8.2% above...