ETF Talk

S&P 500 Outlook – The Bigger Picture

From the very beginning, we considered the pullback from the January 26 high to be a temporary correction (wave 4 according to Elliott Wave Theory), not the beginning of a new bear market.
The chart below describes the concept of Elliott Wave Theory in simple terms. Here is how the Profit Radar...

Treasury Prices and Yields Blindside the Masses – What’s Next?

Last month, 10-year yield above 3% was all the rage. Since then it has dropped more than 8%. The April 25 Profit Radar Report commented as follows on 10-year yields:

“The topic of 3%+ 10-year Treasury yields has captivated the media, and the media writes what retail investors are interested in. For example:

CNBC: Market is obsessed with 10-year yield

MarketWatch: Here’s why stock market investors are focused on a 3% 10-year yield

CNNMoney: Why everyone is stressing about the 10-year Treasury yield

This kind of fascination is usually reached towards the end of a trend...

What’s Next: New Highs or Lows?

Even just a quick glance at the S&P 500 chart reveals a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, buyers and sellers. Although there’ve been many – at time violent – swings, there’s been no net progress.
What will we see first, new highs or new lows? Here’s a look at various pieces of market...

S&P 500 Update – Know What to Expect

It’s said that we shouldn’t blame others for disappointing us, but to blame ourselves for expecting too much. The same is true for the stock market.
Expect the Unexpected
Many investors have become disenchanted as stocks are stuck in a rut. But the market always does what it does, it’s our job...

Free Access to the Profit Radar Report

For the first time ever, anyone can get FREE ACCESS to the Profit Radar Report. The last 6 complete Profit Radar Report updates covering the S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, XLU, US dollar, EUR/USD, gold, silver, and 30-year Treasuries, TLT are available here. Enjoy!
Barron’s rates iSPYETF as...

Simple, Common Sense S&P 500 Update

For almost two years, investors were spoiled with low volatility and high returns, but recent market action has rattled the cage.
Will there be more ‘cage rattling!’ If so, how much?
Sometimes a simple common sense analysis is the best one. KISS.
KISS
The February 11 Profit Radar Report stated...

How to Outsmart a Choppy, Range-bound Market

From January 26 to February 9, the S&P 500 lost as much as 11.84%. This initial freefall was followed by a rollercoaster-like performance.
The large February drop (340 S&P points) expanded the trading range and complicated the search for low-risk S&P 500 entries (see S&P 500...

US Dollar Chokes Gold, Silver and Oil Movement

Gold, silver and oil haven’t gone anywhere in 2018. Why?

The chart below plots gold, silver and crude oil against the US Dollar Index. The US dollar has been in a tight trading range for most of 2018. Although asset correlations come and go, commodities are traded in US dollars, and the US dollar inactivity likely contributed to the lack of direction in the commodities market.

I assume a dollar breakout will awaken commodities.

The November 29 US dollar update featured the chart below, which projects a more significant low in early 2018...

This is Probably the Most Important Seasonal Pattern of 2018

Seasonality is one of 4 key indicators we analyze (the other 3 are: Money flow, technicals, and investor sentiment). Out of many seasonal patterns, this is probably the most important one for all of 2018.

The 2018 S&P 500 Forecast (part of the Profit Radar Report) highlighted this seasonal pattern (and chart):

“2018 is a mid-term year (based on the 4-year presidential election year cycle. Historically, stocks rally from the mid-year (2018) low to the pre-election year (2019) high (on average 50%). The average S&P 500 gain over the last 5 cycles was 36.8% (see chart for individual cycle gains)...