I’m not even going to acknowledge this morning’s euro/yen/dollar action and get sucked into a conversation about topping out markets. The market will never “top out” because we only go higher.
Thus far this month, the S&P 500 is +3.2%– almost matching last year’s +4.6% return. In 2011 we were up +2.33% in January, which snapped a 3 year losing streak for the first month of the new year.
Providing the market can sustain a gain in January, typically it’s a very good omen for the markets.
Since 2011, here is what the market has done from Feb-May.
2011
Feb
+3.47%
March
+0.02%
April
+2.9%
May
-1.13%
2012
Feb
+4.34%
March
+3.22%
April
-0.66%
May
-6.0%
As you can see, based upon recent history (I promise you older history looks the same), the market is in for some smooth sailing until late March. You fine gentlemen can take your glasses of Basil Hayden and head over to the hammock for a little R&R until then. There is nothing that can derail this market, not even self-inflicted, purposeful and an utterly childish national default.
Even though the GOP wants to destroy the credit of the United Steaks, they still love the country in the same manner that an African Black Eagle loves its discarded young (if you don’t know, you don’t know).
I will not entertain any ideas from the reading class on this site. Please cease and desist offering advice of the financial nature until the month of April.
Thank You.
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