The Office of Management and Budget annually releases the President’s Budget as a baseline proposal for the next Fiscal Year. If the Congress is in whole or in part in the hands of the opposite party this mostly gets filed away somewhere in a drawer entitled “You Wish”. But it does come complete with a 400+ page supplement entitled the Analytical Perspectives: Budget of the United States which has among a lot of other stuff some comprehensive tables of projections of economic variables going forward. Which variables you can compare directly to those including in the Social Security Annual Reports and more indirectly to CBO’s Budget and Economic Outlook all of which get released around the same time in most years in springtime. I actually haven’t looked at the Tables of the Analytical Perspectives in a few years and thought I could just put up a couple key tables for you all to inspect. And then perhaps compare to the equivalent Tables in the 2014 Social Security Report. Assuming it is ever released that is. So without comment here are two key tables from the Analytical Perspectives, 25:1 which summarizes Receipts and Outlays and 25:2 giving a Summary of Economic Assumptions. As usual you may need to click to embiggen. I will reserve my discussion mostly until Comments but point out that OMB puts its ultimate (i.e. mean) unemployment rate at 5.4% and rates on the 10 year note at 5.1%. Thoughts?
