Is the pound overvalued? What about the Euro? The US Dollar? The Yen?
Curiously, economists make that case for all of those currencies. And today, the IMF is pounding the drums with this proclamation “Overvalued” Pound Prevents Rebalancing.
The International Monetary Fund warned on Monday that the pound was “overvalued” and preventing the rebalancing of the economy away from a reliance on spending and imports.
In its annual assessment of the UK economy, the fund said sterling was between 5 and 10 per cent overvalued because of a “lack of competitiveness and limited export diversification”.
“Staff estimates that the current account balance is 2.6 per cent weaker than its equilibrium level, and that the real exchange rate is overvalued by about 5–10 per cent,” the IMF said.
Equilibrium Level Madness
Apparently the IMF is the arbiter of the “equilibrium level” of any and every currency. A few examples will prove the point.
New Zealand Dollar Overvalued by 20%
On April 10, 2014 the IMF warned New Zealand Dollar May Be Overvalued.
Canadian Dollar Overvalued by 10%
On March 2, 2014 the IMF Warned Canadian Dollar Overvalued by 10%” despite recent depreciation, thus the Bank of Canada should wait before hiking rates..
Australian Dollar Overvalued by 10%
On November 21, 2013 the IMF Stated Australian Dollar Overvalued by 10%.
US Dollar Overvalued
This dates back a while but on October 28, 2010 the IMF said US Dollar ‘Overvalued’ On Currency Markets.
Swiss Franc Overvalued
Returning to this year, on March 24, 2014, IMF Suggests SNB Use Negative Rates if Franc Pressured because the “franc remains moderately overvalued.”
Euro Overvalued
As shocking as this may seem, I cannot find a recent IMF opinion on the Euro, but on May 8, 2014, Mario Draghi, president of the ECB discussed the Pernicious Effects of an Overvalued Euro. I am pretty sure the IMF would agree.
Yen and US Dollar Overvalued
On October 12, 2012, the Wall Street Journal proclaimed If Yen Overvalued in IMF View, So May Be Dollar.
Japan’s finance minister may have breathed a sigh of relief Thursday when the International Monetary Fund chief reaffirmed the yen is “moderately overvalued,” a phrase traders believe is supportive of potential market intervention to weaken the currency against the dollar.
Not so well-known in the market, however, is that the 188-member international lender also sees the dollar as “moderately overvalued,” a view that makes it harder to conclude the IMF would endorse future intervention by Tokyo in the dollar-yen market.
Yuan Undervalued
On May 29, 2013, and contrary to sentiment in Washington DC that says the Yuan is massively undervalued, The IMF Seeks Flexible Chinese Yuan, Says “Moderately Undervalued”.
US Dollar Index
click on chart for sharper image
Summary
Note that the dollar is about where it has been since the beginning of 2012, but higher than it was in October of 2012 when it was judged to be “overvalued”.
Is it more overvalued today?
Apparently the British pound, New Zealand dollar, Australian Dollar, the US dollar, the euro, and the yen are all overvalued.
The yuan is the one major currency that is allegedly undervalued, but only “modestly“.
Mathematics
Overvalued-undervalued judgements are generally on a basket of currencies basis.
But it is not mathematically possible for all those currencies to be 5-20% overvalued against all the other currencies in the same basket.
Even if it was possible, based on precise timings and currency fluctuations, the idea that the IMF can fine tune currency valuations to the nth degree as it has done is absurd.
All Currencies Overvalued
Nonetheless, the IMF appears to be on target with all these “overvalued” assessments, not against each other, but against gold, and by far greater percentages.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com