Scotland Vote Too Close to Call
Here’s some good news for those rooting for Scottish independence:
In spite of a massive fearmongering campaign by both Labour and Tories in the UK, Scots Independence Race Tightens Six Days Before Ballot.
Scotland’s nationalists drew closer to the Better Together campaign in the latest poll on independence before the referendum, making the run-in to the Sept. 18 vote too close to call.
The poll of 1,000 people for the Guardian newspaper yesterday put support for “yes” on 49 percent and “no” on 51 percent after excluding undecided voters. It is the fourth poll in a week to put the “yes” side within the 3 percent error margin of victory. Only one of those has had the pro-independence side ahead.
Women vs MenWomen backed staying in the U.K. by 55 percent to 45 percent, while men favored independence by 52 percent to 48 percent.
Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc was among lenders to announce contingency plans this week to move some operations out of Scotland in the event of a “yes” vote. Salmond demanded a probe into the disclosure, first reported by the BBC citing a Treasury source, accusing the government of deliberate “scaremongering” by briefing sensitive information before the referendum.
Utter Nonsense
Business leader, Tim Martin, the chairman of pub chain JD Wetherspoon Plc (JDW), was dismissive of warnings from businesses about the costs of independence. “Most of what has been said has been utter nonsense,” he told BBC Radio.
“New Zealand has got a similar population to Scotland, its own currency and it does tremendously well; Singapore — fantastic economy, only 2 or 3 million people; Switzerland does very well,” he said. “There’s obviously no reason why Scotland can’t have its own government if that’s what the Scots want.”
“Scotland Better Off On Its Own
In response to RBS, 4 Other Banks Warn of Relocation to England if Scots Vote Yes; Catalans Stage Mass Protest for Independence Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man blog pinged me with this pertinent comment:
“Scotland will be better off on its own. It matters not one whit where these companies are headquartered. In fact, an independent Scotland would be able to introduce a regulatory and tax regime that makes it irresistible to foreign companies.“
Bingo!
- The EU is concerned that Scotland may lower corporate taxes and pull business from elsewhere.
- Labour is concerned about the loss of Labour votes in the UK parliament.
- Spain and the EU are concerned that a Scotland “yes” vote for independence will cause Catalans to do the same.
- Cameron is worried that he may actually have to put a British EU exit to vote if “Yes” passes.
Strange Bedfellows
Politics makes strange bedfellows and the above four points show why.
“Yes” Makes 100% Perfect Sense for Scotland
Scotland has far better opportunities on its own. Any loss in business of financial industries could easily be regained elsewhere.
The only caveat is that Scotland would have to implement tax reforms to make that happen.
Regardless, the success or failure of independence would be up to the Scots. Yet, compared to being slaves to Britain, that is the better choice by far.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com