Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in September, Table of Distressed and All-Cash Share

From economist Tom Lawler:

Based on realtor association/MLS reports across the country, I estimate that existing home sales as measured by the National Association of Realtors will come in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.14 million in September, up 1.8% from August’s pace but down 2.3% from last September’s pace.

Local realtor/MLS data suggest that the NAR’s inventory estimate for September will be down by about 3.0% from August, and up by about 3.2% from last September. Finally, I expect that the NAR’s median existing SF home sales price in September will be about 4.5% higher than last September.

Lawler also sent me the table below of short sales, foreclosures and cash buyers for several selected cities in September.

On distressed: Total “distressed” share is down in these markets due to a decline in short sales.

Short sales are down in all these areas.

Foreclosures are up slightly in several of these areas.

The All Cash Share (last two columns) is mostly declining year-over-year. As investors pull back, the share of all cash buyers will probably continue to decline.

  Short Sales Share Foreclosure Sales Share Total “Distressed” Share All Cash Share
Sep-14 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-13
Las Vegas 10.4% 23.0% 8.8% 7.0% 19.2% 30.0% 34.3% 47.2%
Reno** 7.0% 20.0% 7.0% 5.0% 14.0% 25.0%  
Phoenix 3.8% 8.8% 5.8% 8.0% 9.6% 16.8% 25.7% 33.4%
Sacramento 5.3% 12.1% 6.5% 3.9% 11.8% 16.0% 19.4% 23.6%
Minneapolis 3.4% 6.0% 9.4% 16.0% 12.8% 22.0%  
Mid-Atlantic 5.5% 7.7% 9.7% 8.2% 15.2% 15.9% 19.1% 18.4%
Bay Area CA* 3.6% 7.5% 2.8% 3.6% 6.4% 11.1% 20.9% 23.3%
So. California* 6.0% 10.9% 4.7% 6.4% 10.7% 17.3% 24.3% 28.7%
Tucson             26.7% 29.8%
Hampton Roads         19.6% 26.1%  
Toledo             31.4% 38.1%
Des Moines             16.8% 19.2%
Georgia***             27.4% N/A
Omaha             19.9% 19.1%
Memphis*     11.7% 16.5%      
Springfield IL**     9.5% 14.1%     22.6% N/A
*share of existing home sales, based on property records
**Single Family Only
***GAMLS

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