Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Declines in April

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Dips in April

The Dodge Momentum Index fell 0.5% in April to 144.3 (2000=100) from the revised March reading of 145.1. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Data & Analytics, is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. The retreat in April was the result of the commercial component falling 1.0% while the institutional component rose a scant 0.2%.

The Momentum Index has clearly lost some impetus over the last twelve months. The overall Momentum Index is down 8.5% since April 2018, with the commercial component 4.7% lower and the institutional component 13.9% lower. However, over the past several months the Momentum Index has moved in a crab-like fashion with neither strong gains or losses. This suggests that there continues to be a reasonably healthy number of projects in the planning pipeline to support a moderate level of construction activity in the coming months.
emphasis added

Dodge Momentum Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 144.3 in April, down from 145.1 in March.

According to Dodge, this index leads “construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year”.

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