I just received in my email box the latest “Nowcast” from the New York Fed. Unfortunately, I cannot understand what they are trying to say. It seems like they are predicting (as of July 31, 2020) that Q2 growth will be minus 13.75%, at an annual rate. But one day earlier, growth was officially estimated to be minus 32.9%. So what is this Nowcast telling me? Is this an estimate of how the GDP number will eventually be revised?
After receiving suggestions, I may add some further comments below. But I don’t want to waste time if I’m misinterpreting the Nowcast: