Not the USA - InvestingChannel

Not the USA

Here’s The Economist, discussing the woes of the Labour Party:

In their recent book “Brexit Land” two academics at the University of Manchester, Maria Sobolewska and Robert Ford, argue that today’s political divide is cultural rather than economic. The university-educated classes define themselves by their cosmopolitan values—their enthusiasm for immigration and fierce hostility to racial and gender-based prejudice. Voters from the old working-class define themselves by their fealty to “traditional values” of flag, family and fireside. And a large new Labour block—immigrants and the children of immigrants—usually sides with the first group despite being more culturally conservative. Originating in long-term changes such as the expansion of the universities and the rise of a multicultural society, the division has been supercharged by Brexit.

Another article in the same issue points out that Labour’s problems are compounded by the fact that the “electoral geography” favors the Tories:

Culture matters too. Mr Johnson has offended the sensibilities of the liberal professionals whom Mr Cameron wooed. A hard Brexit, tougher migration rules that restrict the supply of European au pairs and restaurant staff, and cuts to foreign aid all run against the grain of these areas.

But gains in these areas alone would not provide Labour with a viable path to power. The party needs to gain 128 seats at the next election to get a majority. The graduate vote is concentrated in urban areas, giving it big margins in cities but not elsewhere. Analysis by Onward, a think-tank close to the Conservatives, suggests that changes in electoral geography mean the Tories could gain another 50 seats at the next election, while simultaneously losing 37 mostly in their southern heartlands. 

And the Tories aren’t satisfied with their advantage in electoral geography, they also want to make it harder to vote:

American-style voter ID laws are coming to Britain

They will have almost no effect on fraud, because there is hardly any

Seven local authorities asked voters for various forms of identification in May 2019, after warning that they would be doing so. On average, 0.4% of would-be voters who were asked for id failed to show it, were turned away, and did not return to the polling station.

But many more might conclude that voting has become too much of a hassle, and not bother. “Not everyone gets as excited about elections as we do,” says Jess Garland of the Electoral Reform Society, which opposes the change. Any effect is likely to be uneven. A poll for the government found that 10% of non-white people would be less likely to vote in person if they were required to show photo id, compared with 5% of whites.

Remember, this is not the USA.

Another issue of The Economist looks at Mexico’s new president, a man of “the left” (as if these terms still have any meaning):

Mr López Obrador has attracted far less global attention than other populist leaders. But look closer and he appears astonishingly similar to them (see table). In his eyes, Mexicans fall into two groups: the people, whose authentic will he represents, and the elite, who are to blame for all Mexico’s ills. He sees himself as on a historic mission to sweep away the rotten habits of the past and establish a republic of virtue.

Inside the same issue, The Economist shows that in 1970, right-of-center parties received support from people with higher levels of education and higher incomes:

Today, right wing parties receive support from people with lower levels of education and higher incomes:

Show me a non-college educated business owner and I’ll show you a Republican. Show me a PhD making under $50k and I’ll show you a Democrat.

There are two types of people who accuse me of TDS. Those who say that Obrador, Bolsonaro, Modi, and Orban are obviously evil, but Trump’s not like that. And those who claim that Trump is similar to the other populists, but they are not in fact evil. I see both types in my comment section. Both are wrong.

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