Fed Chair Powell press conference video here starting at 2:30 PM ET.
Here are the projections. In June, most participants expected around two rate hikes in 2023. Now, about half of participants expect one rates hike in 2022.
|GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1|
|Sept 2021||5.8 to 6.0||3.4 to 4.5||2.2 to 2.5||2.0 to 2.2|
|June 2021||6.8 to 7.3||2.8 to 3.8||2.0 to 2.5|
1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
The unemployment rate was revised up slightly for 2021.
|Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2|
|Sept 2021||4.6 to 4.8||3.6 to 4.0||3.3 to 3.7||3.3 to 3.6|
|June 2021||4.4 to 4.8||3.5 to 4.0||3.2 to 3.8|
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
As of July 2021, PCE inflation was up 4.2% from July 2020.
The projections for inflation were revised up and the FOMC sees inflation solidly above target in 2021.
|Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1|
|Sept 2021||4.0 to 4.3||2.0 to 2.5||2.0 to 2.3||2.0 to 2.2|
|June 2021||3.1 to 3.5||1.9 to 2.3||2.0 to 2.2|
PCE core inflation was up 3.6% in July year-over-year.
Projections for core inflation were revised up.
|Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1|
|Sept 2021||3.6 to 3.8||2.0 to 2.5||2.0 to 2.3||2.0 to 2.2|
|June 2021||2.9 to 3.1||1.9 to 2.3||2.0 to 2.2|