Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in September

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.2 million in September, up 5.4% from August’s preliminary pace but down 3.7% from last September’s seasonally adjusted pace

Local realtor reports, as well as reports from national inventory trackers, suggest that the YOY % decline in the inventory of existing homes for sale last month was similar to that in August.

Finally, local realtor/MLS reports suggest the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 12.6% from last September.

Lawler YoY PricesCR Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release September existing home sales on Thursday, October 21, 2021 at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for 6.06 million SAAR. 

Note that the NAR reported median prices were up 23.6% Year-over-year (YoY) in May, 23.4% in June, 17.8% in July and 14.9% in August. It appears the YoY growth slowed further in September.

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