Update: The Coming Deceleration in House Price Growth

Last month, in the Real Estate Newsletter, I wrote: The Coming Deceleration in House Price Growth

Here is an update to the graph:

Not only is Case-Shiller released with a lag (the release next week will be for September, whereas the NAR release yesterday was for October), but the 3-month average means the September release will include sales in July and August too.

Although median prices can be distorted by the mix, and repeat sales indexes (like Case-Shiller and the FHFA) are more accurate measures of house prices, the median price index might provide earlier hints on the direction of prices.

House Prices Case-Shiller MedianClick on graph for larger image.

This graph – as of the NAR release in October 2020 (a year ago) – shows median prices started to take off, even though the most recent Case-Shiller report only showed a very modest pickup in prices.

This shows the lag in the Case-Shiller report.

The second graph – as of the NAR release yesterday – shows that Case-Shiller followed the median prices up, and that median prices are now falling.

House Prices Case-Shiller Median Note: the NAR YoY change in September 2021 was revised down, so there was a slight uptick in October prices YoY.

This suggests that Case-Shiller will start to show some deceleration later this year – but still be up solidly YoY.

Related posts

Carl Icahn Increases His Stake In Take-Two Interactive To 10.68%

ValueWalk

iPad Mini Display Outperformed By Kindle Fire HD & Nexus 7

ValueWalk

Foxconn Might Open Manufacturing Plants In The U.S. [REPORT]

ValueWalk

Peter Cundill Protégé Tim McElvaine on Investing in Japan [VIDEO]

ValueWalk

Set Bing Home Page Image As Lock Screen In Windows 8

ValueWalk

Morning Market News: JCP, APO, MCHP, ZIP, ENR, LGF, EA, ATVI, COV, LNT

ValueWalk