Moderna peaked at around $500 at the height of the coronavirus-driven pandemic. Since early fall, markets realized the questionable efficacy of the vaccine and greater competition are hurting Moderna’s growth prospects.
In its last earnings report, Moderna lowered its forecast. It factored booster shot uptake and competition in its outlook. Also, competition from other vaccine makers will limit the revenue potential for Covid-19 vaccines. BioNTech (BNTX), Novavax (NVAX), J&J (JNJ), AstraZeneca (AZN), and Pfizer (PFE) all offer a broader basket of products than Moderna.
In a clinical trial for its flu, Moderna said subjects increased antibody levels against all four strains at all doses tested. In the study results, Moderna did not clarify if it reported binding titers or the more meaningful HAI titers. If it is the latter, Moderna will need to explain the miss.
Moderna shareholders are sensitive to the company’s portfolio prospects. The company risks relying on the Covid vaccine for growth. That is not sustainable. The pandemic will eventually run its course. Demand for Moderna vaccines will slow because competition is growing.
Your Takeaway
Investors should hold a small position in established drug companies that supply vaccines. Sanofi (SNY) is best known for its influenza virus and is another company to consider owning.