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Proprietary Data Insights Top Entertainment Stock Searches This Month
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Netflix Hopes You Forget In March, The Juice shared data showing the extent to which we forget about how much we spend each month on subscriptions. A couple months later and there’s new data comparing how much we think versus what we actually pay for our stream of monthly subscriptions. Source: C + R Research Scary exercise. Nearly 25% of the sample underestimated what they pay by $200 or more. Across the sample, 42% of people say they have kept paying for a subscription they were no longer using. Then there’s this Netflix-related tidbit: Speaking of Netflix. By its own admission, the company’s about to experience a world of hurt. And if The Juice’s hunch is correct it could get worse before it gets better. Scroll with us. |
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Investing |
Things Could Get Much Uglier For Netflix
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Key Takeaways:
Stranger Things set a viewing record for Netflix during its premiere weekend. However, there’s scant, if any analysis as to just how critical Stranger Things might be to Netflix’s stock price for the remainder of 2022 heading into 2023. 287 Million Hours That’s how many hours Netflix subscribers spent watching Stranger Things during its opening weekend, May 25-27. 287 million hours. Insane in the membrane. Blows aways the March debut of Bridgerton’s season two, which racked up 193 million hours. At its current pace, season four/part one of Stranger Things will likely become one of Netflix’s top three most watched shows ever. Part two of season four debuts July 1st. This is where things get interesting for the stock. Here’s what The Juice said in April about Netflix’s curious choice of July 1st for the conclusion of Stranger Things’ season four: Netflix lost 200,000 subs last quarter. It expects to lose 2 million more by July 1, which is the end of Q2. And that’s with Stranger Things! You can’t help but think there’s something to releasing part two of season four of its biggest hit on July 1. What’s gonna happen once millions of subscribers immediately binge the remaining episodes? How many more subscribers will Netflix lose at the beginning of Q3 when people like my daughter have little use for Netflix other than to wait for the final season five of Stranger Things? Don’t Bull Shit A Bull Shitter Netflix lost 200,000 subscribers in Q1. It expects to report a loss of another 2 million when it reports Q2 earnings. That’s for the period ending June 30, 2022. On the earnings call where Netflix delivered the bad news, Reed Hastings and company did what they do best. They filtered their precarious situation through rose-colored glasses as a mere challenge. Just another obstacle in a long line of obstacles Netflix has faced and overcome throughout the years. But why do you think Netflix picked July 1st – day one of Q3 – for the second part of Stranger Things’ season four? Could it be because the company expects an even greater exodus of subscribers after Stranger Things ends? Undoubtedly there’ll be cancellations for two main reasons:
Maybe wants to push these additional subscriber losses off into Q3 rather than absorb them alongside the two million they expect to lose in Q2? If it’s a bigger number than Netflix expects, the second half of the year could look uglier than the first. The Juice thinks it might be onto something, especially when you consider what Stranger Things means to Netflix. The Bottom Line: Investors value Netflix on subscribers. No other metric matters as much. For years, the company spent tons of money to secure third-party content. Then it started dropping loads of cash to produce its own. As long as subscriber numbers came in as expected or higher, the stock did likewise. Netflix told us about the two million subscriber exodus it expects to report from Q2. With July 1 both another Stranger Things’ debut and day one of Q3, the struggling streamer might have to deliver more bad news if it expects additional subscriber losses after fans binge the next installment of one of its most popular shows. Something to keep an eye on if you own the stock or are thinking about it. |
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