Existing Home Sales: Lawler vs. the Consensus

Housing economist Tom Lawler has been sending me his predictions of what the NAR will report for 12 years.  And he has graciously allowed me to share his predictions with the readers of this blog.

The table below shows the consensus for each month, Lawler’s predictions, and the NAR’s initially reported level of sales.  Lawler hasn’t always been closer than the consensus, but usually when there has been a fairly large spread between Lawler’s estimate and the “consensus”, Lawler has been closer.

The NAR is scheduled to release Existing Home Sales for May, tomorrow at 10:00 AM, Tuesday, June 21st.

The consensus is for 5.41 million SAAR in May. Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales of 5.35 million SAAR. 

Over the last 12 years, the consensus average miss was 147 thousand, and Lawler’s average miss was 72 thousand.

Existing Home Sales, Forecasts and NAR Report
millions, seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR)
Month Consensus Lawler NAR reported1
May-10 6.20 5.83 5.66
Jun-10 5.30 5.30 5.37
Jul-10 4.66 3.95 3.83
Aug-10 4.10 4.10 4.13
Sep-10 4.30 4.50 4.53
Oct-10 4.50 4.46 4.43
Nov-10 4.85 4.61 4.68
Dec-10 4.90 5.13 5.28
Jan-11 5.20 5.17 5.36
Feb-11 5.15 5.00 4.88
Mar-11 5.00 5.08 5.10
Apr-11 5.20 5.15 5.05
May-11 4.75 4.80 4.81
Jun-11 4.90 4.71 4.77
Jul-11 4.92 4.69 4.67
Aug-11 4.75 4.92 5.03
Sep-11 4.93 4.83 4.91
Oct-11 4.80 4.86 4.97
Nov-11 5.08 4.40 4.42
Dec-11 4.60 4.64 4.61
Jan-12 4.69 4.66 4.57
Feb-12 4.61 4.63 4.59
Mar-12 4.62 4.59 4.48
Apr-12 4.66 4.53 4.62
May-12 4.57 4.66 4.55
Jun-12 4.65 4.56 4.37
Jul-12 4.50 4.47 4.47
Aug-12 4.55 4.87 4.82
Sep-12 4.75 4.70 4.75
Oct-12 4.74 4.84 4.79
Nov-12 4.90 5.10 5.04
Dec-12 5.10 4.97 4.94
Jan-13 4.90 4.94 4.92
Feb-13 5.01 4.87 4.98
Mar-13 5.03 4.89 4.92
Apr-13 4.92 5.03 4.97
May-13 5.00 5.20 5.18
Jun-13 5.27 4.99 5.08
Jul-13 5.13 5.33 5.39
Aug-13 5.25 5.35 5.48
Sep-13 5.30 5.26 5.29
Oct-13 5.13 5.08 5.12
Nov-13 5.02 4.98 4.90
Dec-13 4.90 4.96 4.87
Jan-14 4.70 4.67 4.62
Feb-14 4.64 4.60 4.60
Mar-14 4.56 4.64 4.59
Apr-14 4.67 4.70 4.65
May-14 4.75 4.81 4.89
Jun-14 4.99 4.96 5.04
Jul-14 5.00 5.09 5.15
Aug-14 5.18 5.12 5.05
Sep-14 5.09 5.14 5.17
Oct-14 5.15 5.28 5.26
Nov-14 5.20 4.90 4.93
Dec-14 5.05 5.15 5.04
Jan-15 5.00 4.90 4.82
Feb-15 4.94 4.87 4.88
Mar-15 5.04 5.18 5.19
Apr-15 5.22 5.20 5.04
May-15 5.25 5.29 5.35
Jun-15 5.40 5.45 5.49
Jul-15 5.41 5.64 5.59
Aug-15 5.50 5.54 5.31
Sep-15 5.35 5.56 5.55
Oct-15 5.41 5.33 5.36
Nov-15 5.32 4.97 4.76
Dec-15 5.19 5.36 5.46
Jan-16 5.32 5.36 5.47
Feb-16 5.30 5.20 5.08
Mar-16 5.27 5.27 5.33
Apr-16 5.40 5.44 5.45
May-16 5.64 5.55 5.53
Jun-16 5.48 5.62 5.57
Jul-16 5.52 5.41 5.39
Aug-16 5.44 5.49 5.33
Sep-16 5.35 5.55 5.47
Oct-16 5.44 5.47 5.60
Nov-16 5.54 5.60 5.61
Dec-16 5.54 5.55 5.49
Jan-17 5.55 5.60 5.69
Feb-17 5.55 5.41 5.48
Mar-17 5.61 5.74 5.71
Apr-17 5.67 5.56 5.57
May-17 5.55 5.65 5.62
Jun-17 5.58 5.59 5.52
Jul-17 5.57 5.38 5.44
Aug-17 5.48 5.39 5.35
Sep-17 5.30 5.38 5.39
Oct-17 5.30 5.60 5.48
Nov-17 5.52 5.77 5.81
Dec-17 5.75 5.66 5.57
Jan-18 5.65 5.48 5.38
Feb-18 5.42 5.44 5.54
Mar-18 5.28 5.51 5.60
Apr-18 5.60 5.48 5.46
May-18 5.56 5.47 5.43
Jun-18 5.45 5.35 5.38
Jul-18 5.43 5.40 5.34
Aug-18 5.36 5.36 5.34
Sep-18 5.30 5.20 5.15
Oct-18 5.20 5.31 5.22
Nov-18 5.19 5.23 5.32
Dec-18 5.24 4.97 4.99
Jan-19 5.05 4.92 4.94
Feb-19 5.08 5.46 5.51
Mar-19 5.30 5.40 5.21
Apr-19 5.36 5.31 5.19
May-19 5.29 5.40 5.34
Jun-19 5.34 5.25 5.27
Jul-19 5.39 5.40 5.42
Aug-19 5.38 5.42 5.49
Sep-19 5.45 5.36 5.38
Oct-19 5.49 5.36 5.46
Nov-19 5.45 5.43 5.35
Dec-19 5.43 5.40 5.54
Jan-20 5.45 5.42 5.46
Feb-20 5.50 5.58 5.77
Mar-20 5.30 5.25 5.27
Apr-20 4.30 4.17 4.33
May-20 4.38 3.80 3.91
Jun-20 4.86 4.65 4.72
Jul-20 5.39 5.85 5.86
Aug-20 6.00 5.92 6.00
Sep-20 6.25 6.38 6.54
Oct-20 6.45 6.63 6.85
Nov-20 6.70 6.50 6.69
Dec-20 6.55 6.62 6.76
Jan-21 6.60 6.48 6.69
Feb-21 6.51 6.29 6.22
Mar-21 6.17 6.02 6.01
Apr-21 6.09 5.96 5.85
May-21 5.74 5.78 5.80
Jun-21 5.90 5.79 5.86
Jul-21 5.84 5.86 5.99
Aug-21 5.88 5.90 5.88
Sep-21 6.06 6.20 6.29
Oct-21 6.20 6.34 6.34
Nov-21 6.20 6.45 6.46
Dec-21 6.45 6.33 6.18
Jan-22 6.12 6.36 6.50
Feb-22 6.16 5.97 6.02
Mar-22 5.80 5.74 5.77
Apr-22 5.62 5.57 5.61
May-22 5.41 5.35 NA
1NAR initially reported before revisions.

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