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Is The American Dream Dead?
With 30-year mortgage interest rates playing chicken with 7%, this chart comes in handy.
One year ago, with rates closer to 3%, you paid just over $2,000 a month on a $600,000 home. Today, at around 7%, you’re closer to $3,200.
These mind-blowing numbers, alongside record housing prices, have priced large swaths of the population out of real estate.
Logically leads you to believe the American dream of home ownership for one and all might be dead. Or at least on life support.
If so, it’s an abrupt turn. Because the last decade defined the American dream. The Juice has more – mind. blown. – numbers to support this statement in a minute.
An Update On A Penny Stock
Last week, The Juice told you about a penny stock our proprietary Trackstar database alerted us to. American Virtual Cloud Technologies (AVCT) is still hanging tough with the big boys in Trackstar.
When we told you about AVCT it traded for around $0.24. Here’s what has happened since then. Wild ride. But a ride you could have made a dollar on.
Source: Google Finance
A $5,000 investment on the 19th could have been worth as much as $7,083 on the 23rd. Even at $0.28, you’re sitting on a little more than $5,800. And, because AVCT is heavily traded, you’re dealing with a relatively tight bid/ask spread for an up until now unknown name.
That’s what we call a swing trade. Way more than a dollar a day.
Looking in the rearview mirror, over the last decade one particular investment generated considerably more than a dollar a day and was much, much less volatile than penny stocks for millions of households.
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Another Day, Another $266
Let’s run some numbers to see what made US households more money in the last decade: stocks or real estate.
Thanks to our friends at Point2Homes for the crazy data on the astronomical growth in home prices over the last ten years:
Home prices in… (the San Jose) California metro rose more than $1 million, reaching $1,640,000 in 2021 and $1,9 million in Q2 2022. In other words, between January 2011 and December 2021, home prices here increased by an average of $266 per day. Coming in second, San Francisco homes added an average of $208 every day for 10 years, going from a little less than $500,000 in 2011 to a median of $1,320,000 in 2021.
Unbelievable. But what if you don’t live or own a home in the top two housing markets between 2011 and 2021?
Insane in the membrane. Insane in the brain.
More proof we live in a world of haves and have nots.
You’re “making” in excess of $200 a day on real estate in tech-heavy Northern California, but just a few dollars a day in Illinois cities, such as Peoria and Decatur. But even in those places, home prices appreciated 8.9% and 28.7%, respectively. Nice, but nothing compared to the 187.7% and 173.1% pops in the San Jose and San Francisco metros.
How Much Did The S&P 500 Deliver Per Day?
Let’s do some rough math.
If you put $10,000 into the S&P 500 (SPY) at the beginning of 2011, you would have had $37,774 at the end of 2021. Good for a 278% increase.
Break it down per day (365 days per year X 10 years) and that $27,774 you “made” generated $7.61 per day. Of course, this doesn’t count additional contributions or dividend reinvestment.
It also doesn’t take into account the roughly 22% decrease in SPY year-to-date. For the record, home prices in the San Jose market increased 15.9% between the end of 2021 and Q2, 2022.
Did You Really Make Any Money?
There’s a difference between making money and making money.
If you don’t sell, it’s all on paper. If you sell a house you live in, you must secure subsequent shelter. This costs money.
And who knows the state of your mortgage. Did you tap that equity? And so on.
Similar story on stocks. If you planned on retiring this year, the S&P’s decline might have thrown a wrench in your plans. However, if you cashed out at the end of 2021, you ended up in a relatively strong position.
The Bottom Line: No matter how you slice it, the period between 2011 and 2021 might go down as the golden age of the American dream. Lots of people made lots of money in real estate and the stock market.
What a difference nine months can make.
A baby can pop out. Mortgage rates can go from 3% to 7%. Home prices can actually go down in California! Stocks can flirt with bear market territory. The economy looks like it might enter a recession.
At The Juice we believe there’s always opportunity. And we’ll be here with strategies to help you live your best money life money no matter the times – good, bad, or otherwise.
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