We recently compiled a list of the David Einhorn’s Stock Portfolio: Top 10 Stocks to Buy. In this article, we are going to take a look at where HP Inc (NYSE:HPQ) stands against the other the David Einhorn’s Top Stocks Pick.
Will the stock market rally persist heading into the year-end?
Major indices are at record highs, making it hard to predict market direction despite the Federal Reserve’s policy tweaks. Investors have pushed equities higher amid AI excitement and expected rate cuts, but momentum is waning.
Recent market swings are driven by Middle East tensions, with the S&P 500 down 1.1% in October after a 2% rise in September. Geopolitical risks and potential conflicts, like Israel and Iran, add uncertainty, pushing investors towards safe havens like gold and bonds.
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S&P Global’s Daniel Bergin warns of a dangerous economic period, comparing it to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis:
“The betting is that the Israelis would not attack, try to attack, the nuclear facilities at this time. But a few months from now, a few weeks from now, whatever it is, Iran would have the capacity — its thought — to deliver a nuclear weapon, and that raises the stakes.”
The Fed and Chinese authorities are cutting rates to support their economies. Alexander Cousley from Russell Investments notes:
“We haven’t moved into this world where fiscal has become the dominant driver, and so that’s what we’re really looking for… we are still in this period where Chinese authorities respond to weakening data, and the thing starts to improve a little bit, and we don’t see the actual follow through.”
David Einhorn’s Market Concerns and Investment Strategy
Economic growth uncertainty in two of the world’s largest economies should be a point of concern for investors eyeing opportunities in the equity markets. David Einhorn, the legendary investor behind Greenlight Capital, was the first to raise concerns about valuations in the market early in the year.
In a letter to investors, the hedge fund manager reiterated that the stock market was fundamentally broken as investment capital did not care about valuation:
“The result is that a very small portion of trading volume today is based on strategies that try to identify which stocks are undervalued in order to buy them for an intermediate or a long-term investment period, with a view that the shares will outperform as they close the discount to fair value,” states the April ’24 letter.
David Einhorn launched Greenlight Capital at 27 with $900,000 from family and friends. He gained prominence by short-selling Allied Capital in 2002, a move validated by the SEC years later. During the Great Recession, he shorted Lehman Brothers in 2007.
Known for value investing, Einhorn now questions its viability due to market changes and the rise of passive investing. Earlier this year, he expressed concerns that value investing might be obsolete due to a broken market structure and the increasing dominance of passive investing.
This shift in market structure has led Einhorn to change his investing philosophy. Now, he focuses on companies that look cheap in value and return capital to shareholders through repurchases or dividends.
Despite changing his strategy, Einhorn has generated strong long-term returns. Greenlight has averaged annual returns of 13.1% since its launch in 1996, compared to 9.5% for the broader benchmark S&P 500. That equates to a total return of over 2,900% compared to the S&P 500’s 1,117%.
Einhorn’s solid returns over the years have come to haunt, as former Greenlight Capital analyst James Fishback sued Greenlight Capital over claims he was underpaid. In a filing to the American Arbitration Association, Fishback alleges that he was underpaid over the years he worked at the hedge fund and wants the arbitrator to award him $5 million.
Since departing to establish his own company, Fishback has consistently frustrated Einhorn, publicly debating his ex-employer on Twitter regarding his stance on Tesla’s stock and provoking him with comments about his recent achievements.
Nevertheless, Greenlight Capital lost 1.7 per cent in August, a generally volatile but positive month for the broad market. The loss cut its gain for the year to 9.1 per cent. It is not clear which investments drove last month’s loss.
Amid the mixed results, David Einhorn’s stock portfolio could offer some reprieve as it contains some stocks trading at highly discounted levels. According to Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital, undervalued stocks tend to underperform for extended periods to the extent of becoming extremely cheap.
Similarly, such stocks are well-positioned to bounce back and rally when investors note how undervalued they are, especially when other counterparts are trading at premium valuations.
Our Methodology
To compile the list of the David Einhorn Stock Portfolio: Top 10 Stocks to Buy we examined Greenlight Capital’s 13F portfolio, as of Q2 2024. The stocks are ranked in ascending order based on Greenlight Capital’s stakes in them.
At Insider Monkey, we are obsessed with the stocks that hedge funds pile into. The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
have the biggest selection of AI PCs available. Expectations are high that robust demand for AI-powered PCs will boost sales demand, allowing the company to generate more shareholder value.
With PC demand recovering, HP Inc. (NYSE:HPQ) ‘s stock might continue to rise. At the very least, an increase in demand should support its profitability as it strives to reinvest profits into shareholders and improve its financial health.
The company is already benefiting from strong PC demand, having delivered its first increase in revenue growth in nine quarters in the third quarter, with earnings climbing by 2% compared to the previous year. Revenue and earnings growth has sparked optimism about long-term prospects. This expectation is firm given HP Inc. (NYSE:HPQ) ‘s leading position in the AI PC segment, with its advanced AI PCs gaining popularity among professionals in knowledge and data science fields.
During the third quarter, HP Inc. (NYSE:HPQ) expanded its AI capabilities even more by being the first technology company to incorporate generative AI into its workstation solutions. HP remains focused more on enhancing its newer PC models’ mobility and AI capabilities. In July, the company launched its top-tier model, equipped with the latest AMD processor, which has been recognized as the industry’s most advanced AI PC
While trading at a price-to-earnings multiple of 10, HP’s dividend payout has increased to 3.07%, and it’s also distributing a significant amount of money back to its investors by buying back shares. During the third quarter, the company repurchased nearly $0.9 billion of shares, with $600 million going towards share buybacks and $268 million allocated for dividends. Its ability to return value through dividends and buybacks underscores why it is one of David Einhorn’s top stocks to buy.
A total of 41 hedge funds were long HP Inc. (NYSE:HPQ) in the second quarter, with a total stake value of $655 million.
Greenlight Capital stated the following regarding HP Inc. (NYSE:HPQ) in its Q2 2024 investor letter:
“In addition to gold, we had four material winners in our long portfolio this quarter. HP Inc. (NYSE:HPQ) jumped from $30.22 to $35.02. After seven quarters of declines, PC sales turned marginally positive during the quarter. The industry appears to be in the early stages of an upcycle, perhaps to be enhanced by recently launched AI-enabled PCs that are expected to ramp up over the next several quarters.”
Overall HPQ ranks 4th on our list of David Einhorn Stock Portfolio: Top 10 Stocks to Buy. While we acknowledge the potential of HPQ as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than HPQ, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.