– Trading to slow as US holidays near.
– Trump nominates a market-friendly hedge fund manager for Treasury Secretary.
– US dollar opens on a mixed note.
USDCAD: open 1.3960, overnight range,1.3928-1.3977, close 1.3961, WTI $70.96, Gold, $2677.82
The Canadian dollar traded choppily overnight. It rallied in Asia then erased the move in Europe. The Asia move followed news that Trump nominated a hedge fund manager, Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary and traders liked the news. Friday’s Canadian Retail Sales result matched the Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimates which suggested a less dovish outcome at the December Bank of Canada (BoC) policy meeting.
The Canadian government’s new stimulus measures, including a temporary suspension of HST on numerous items starting December 15 and $250 payments for individuals earning under $150,000, raise concerns about rekindling inflationary pressures.
WTI oil prices are trading within a narrow range of $70.41–$71.43 and currently sit at $71.05 in early New York trading. While prices have eased alongside the weakening US dollar, they remain underpinned by ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Neither the US nor Canada has significant economic releases scheduled for today.
EURUSD opened higher in Asia, moving from Friday’s New York close of 1.0427 to an opening level of 1.0480. The pair peaked at 1.0501 before settling into a range between 1.0449 and 1.0500, pressured by disappointing German Ifo data. The Business Climate Index dropped to 85.7 in November, down from 86.5, while the Current Assessment fell to 84.3 from 85.4, signaling the likelihood of a winter recession.
GBPUSD also opened the week with a gap higher, climbing from 1.2530 at Friday’s close to 1.2607 before consolidating within a range of 1.2545 to 1.2607. Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli expressed caution regarding inflation, noting that signs of slowing wage disinflation mean it is too early to declare victory over inflation.
USDJPY saw volatile trading within a range of 153.55 to 154.74. The session’s low came on the back of expectations for a $250 billion fiscal stimulus package, which some analysts believe could pave the way for the Bank of Japan to raise rates in December. Lower US Treasury yields also provided support for the yen.
AUDUSD traded between 0.6499 and 0.6551, initially gapping higher at the open but fully reversing the gains in European trading.