We’ve seen amazing turns in EM currencies over the last few sessions with gap-type moves in ZAR, BRL, PLN, and RUB, even as the dollar holds its ground.
Is this a sign of more carry trades being put on? It’s hard to believe investors are making a call on higher rates by EM central banks. What we can say is that yen weakness equals investment into EM currencies. This is very supportive to EM central banks that are talking now more about easing than hiking.
