Despite last week’s red numbers, stock investors are still quite complacent. The opposite is true for bond investors. The ‘bond VIX’ shows extreme fear and extreme fear is generally seen close to a bottom. Here are the implications for stocks:
The VIX is trading above its upper Bollinger Band and 47% (as of Monday’s close) above its 2013 low. That sounds dramatic, but really, the VIX is just a bit above 16.
Stock investors got a bit of a wake up call (and more of a ‘cold shower’ effect may not be far away), but stock investors are complacent compared to bond investors. How do we know?
Merrill Lynch developed the Merrill Option Volatility Expectations Index (MOVE) to reflect a market estimate of future Treasury bond yield volatility. The MOVE uses the weighted volatility average of the 2, 5, 10 and 30-year Treasuries with a weighting of 20% (2-year), 20% (5-year), 40% (10-year), and 20% (30-year).
In short, the MOVE is like the VIX for Treasury bonds. Bloomberg reported that the MOVE climbed 62% to 80 in May, 5.5 higher than the VIX.
High VIX readings generally foreshadow a bottom or some kind of low for stocks. High MOVE readings do the same for bonds and a low for bonds, or rising bonds, is generally bearish for stocks.
When tested, this rationale holds up as prior instances where the MOVE traded 5.5Xs higher than the VIX have generally led to lower stock prices. Surprisingly, they didn’t always result in higher long-term Treasury prices.
This somewhat funky indicator is only one piece of the puzzle, but along with many others it suggests that stocks may soon hit a wall of June gloom.