It’s pretty good, and very clever, although the closing jab reeks of soviet mentality and philosophy. I’m talking through this issue today on CNBC Street Signs and here is the layout I’m following:
Putin has played his hand brilliantly in this “strangely ironic” piece.- This plays well at home where it’s all about preservation of power and wealth for him.
- Why is Putin and Russia (RSX, quote) taking the stance on Syria that they do?
- They have spreading Islamism
- They get $$$ from Syrian military sales
- They do NOT want western interference in their sphere of influence (former Soviet) and have struggled with west on their own regional conflicts, so they are taking hands off approach. They want the west (NATO) out of their business
Russia’s plan.
- Only one who can get access and possibly carry out this chemical weapons reduction.
- If U.S. says no it makes it look like U.S. was only looking for a regime change, not trying to take a humanitarian approach.
- Optimists will want to believe this is one more chance for Putin to reshape his legacy
- But showing their need to be accepted on world stage and are being opportunistic with this one.
- Putin’s tactic in referencing the “rule of law” and toeing a constitutional line is logical and it makes sense. It’s terribly ironic coming from a guy that steamrolls the rule of law in Russia. (Putin has re-crafted the constitution to cement his power, bullies the judicial system, etc.).
- Putin warning of the threat of WMD and talking of non-proliferation of arms – is very Soviet, using peace as a détente same they were using arms control with Europe as a way to talk while digging in further on their own interests.
Chance for Putin legacy change?
- Real opposition party in Russia is gaining power.
- Navaly got 27% after earlier running – was more dangerous n jail as a martyr….was let out
- Putin still talking in soviet and socialist dialect,” Being “exceptional” in Russia is a problem. This is encouraged in the USA.
Russia any different?
- Some are trying to paint it as….the market needs it. Volumes are a fraction of where they were 5 years ago. But it’s a very real market. Absurdly cheap on P/E but not terribly cheap on P/B especially outside the O/G sector
- Russia has an amazing consumer consumption trend that’s been building steadily over last 3-5years.