China Exports inspire a short term rally but let’s keep enthusiasm at a minimum and understand the big picture.
China’s weekend trade numbers were overall very positive on the headline as Exports came in at +12.7% vs. estimated 7% and exceeding the previous month print of +7.6%.
Import data was a touch softer but the overall Trade Balance of +33.8 billion is “old school” which is to day, China (FXI, quote) looking a lot like exporter to the world of old.
BUT….note that the comps on the export data are not too difficult coming off a softer China and global economy for the yearend of 2012.
Also note that for China to really prime the global commodities pump and grow at +10-11% levels, they will need to be exporting a lot more and that is just not in the cards.
Global trade is down and will remain in a down trend. Chinese imports and consumption growth can be a pleasant surprise but will not move the needle in the next 2-3 years in a meaningful way to drive the entire asset class.
