We have chronicled the structural condition of the Australian Dollar for 9 months on EmergingMoney.com pointing out that a combination of weaker Chinese commodity demand and local interest rate policy (driven by China’s impact on the economy) were going to pressure the Aussie to multiyear lows.
Today we see a break in the dam was a combination of poor macro data in the region and Australian Unemployment data that was shocking. The AUD (AUD, quote) is down -1.2% today and -2.7% over 3 days.
The chart over the last year shows that the AUD was able to hold key support around 88.75, but that floor has given out. Falling gold prices, Fed tapering, and readjustment of the Australian economy are factors that will persists and weigh on the AUD. China will not be any help for core demand of bulks.
Testing 84.75 on the chart could very well be a 2014 event. This would be an interesting area to re-engage technically if the macro says there is a bottoming process.