Historically oil has traded anywhere between $10-$40 per barrel, with $40 being crisis levels. A quick fact for you ham and eggers out there: a gas guzzling truck, parked and turned off, is worse for the environment than a modern day vehicle going 60MPH on the highway. This just goes to show you how utterly stupid we were twenty years ago. Modern day engineers are advancing civilization faster than anyone ever dreamt of in the past, even Orwell.
So now we have the conundrum of lower oil prices, what to do with them, and the ramifications. A little side note for you: Texas homebuilding is in the gutters now, expected to decline by 20% in 2015, as all of those homos in big hats enter receivership. Let’s not forget that 18% of all junk bonds are energy related. There is going fire and brimstone inside of the fixed equity portfolios, sometime during 2015. Now the question is, where the fuck is oil going?
Some Iranian asshat suggested that oil could trade down to $25, without OPEC stepping in to save the day (extra Tom Greene). If he would’ve said that three months ago, you’d probably laugh at him and chalk him up to being a palaver. But now with oil in the $40’s, we are paying attention, aren’t we?
My worst case scenario for oil is pre-Iraq war levels. On the day the war started oil was trading at $28 per barrel. Now that peace reigns throughout the middled east and the charitable organization ISIS is at the helm, one should surmise that the “normalized” level for oil to be $25-$30 barrel.
Why the fuck not?
When that happens, General Vladimir Putin will fire nuclear missiles at the oil derricks in Saudi Arabia and Iran will simply melt away, like a snowman in July. Venezuelans will starve on an industrial scale and the American consumer will gain a collective 5 million pounds, from all of the additional fast food they will be ingesting, thanks to the cost savings.
We’ve been in a meat-grinder since November. Nothing has worked, aside from gold, airlines and biotech. However, it’s worth noting that my recent foray into micro-cap biotech has resulted in apocalypse: NDRM. Some people inside of The PPT proposed the idea that I’ve offended some black-hearted billionaire and that I should offer “general apologies” in order to receive mercy. Well, I will have you know, “The Fly” apologizes to no one, and will gnaw off said billionaire boot, drag his torso into my parlour and toss his limp body into my fireplace. After that, the kids will gather ’round and stare into the hot flames, as Father Fly tells tales of victory and redemption, of the biblical nature.
Chop, chop, chop.