Back in late 2014, many pundits assured us that falling oil prices were bullish for the economy. I countered that one should never reason from an oil price change. The net effect is ambiguous. As the following graph shows, industrial production had been rising fast in the period leading up to November 2014, but has been falling ever since. GDP was almost flat in Q1, and the Atlanta Fed says growth will also be slow in Q2.
That does NOT mean falling oil prices hurt the economy, an equally unjustified assumption. Rather it is monetary policy (NGDP growth) that drives short run changes in output. NRFPC!
