Given his protectionist leanings it’s perhaps ironic that the President-Elect’s biggest global allies might end up being the BoJ and the ECB. The biggest risk to his plans and to market stability might be if the BoJ decides to abandon the defense of zero and/or if the ECB signals a taper earlier than expected.
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Or, another way of putting it, Japanese and European bond investors will now be unwittingly funding Trump’s vision to “make America great again”, while China and Saudi Arabia can hold the US hostage with threats of Treasury liquidation.
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So can Trump do it? For now the market is happy to answer in the affirmative, although as Jim Reid concludes, “the days of one-way dovish monetary policy, with no fiscal spending and low volatility in asset prices and growth are likely over.”
This should be interesting. We’ve already seen a tiny tiny taste of what “could go wrong” with the gap up in mortgage rates…