Barchart Morning Call

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU17 -0.03%) this morning are down -0.06% as the market consolidates this week’s gains. European stocks recovered from a 1-week low and are up +0.13% on stronger-than-expected Eurozone Jun retail sales and on an upbeat economic bulletin from the ECB that points to “broad-based growth in the Eurozone in the near term.” As expected, the BOE voted 6-2 to keep its benchmark rate at 0.25% and voted 8-0 to maintain its asset-purchase target at 435 billion pounds following today’s policy meeting. However, GBP/USD fell back from a 10-1/2 month high and is down -0.41% after the BOE cut its UK 2017 GDP forecast to 1.7% from a prior forecast of 1.9% and lowered its UK 2018 GDP estimate to 1.6% from 1.7%. Asian stocks settled lower: Japan -0.25%, Hong Kong -0.28%, China -0.37%, Taiwan -0.47%, Australia -0.16%, Singapore -0.18%, South Korea -1.70%, India -0.74%.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.11%) is up +0.15%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.13%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.14%.

Sep 10-year T-note prices (ZNU17 +0.10%) are little changed, up +0.5 of a tick.

The ECB said in its monthly economic bulletin that “incoming data, notably survey results, continue to point to solid, broad-based growth in the Eurozone in the near term.”

Eurozone Jun retail sales rose +0.5% m/m and +3.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of unch m/m and +2.5% y/y, with the +3.1% y/y gain the largest year-on-year increase in 23-months.

The UK Jul Markit/CIPS services PMI rose +0.4 to 53.8, stronger than expectations of +0.2 to 53.6.

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Jul Challenger job cuts (Jun -19.3% y/y), (2) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected -2,000 to 242,000, previous +10,000 to 244,000) and continuing claims (expected -6,000 to 1.958 million, previous -13,000 to 1.964 million), (3) final-Jul Markit U.S. services PMI (expected unch at 54.2, prelim-Jul unch at 54.2), (4) Jul ISM non-manufacturing (expected -0.5 to 56.9, Jun +0.5 to 57.4), (5) Jun factory orders (expected +3.0%, May -0.8% and -0.3% ex transportation), (6) USDA weekly Export Sales.

Notable S&P 500 earnings reports today include: Kellogg (consensus $0.92), Apache (-0.01), NRG Energy (0.05), Church & Dwight (0.39), Fluor (0.60), Yum Brands (0.62), ICE (0.76), Global Payments (0.92), Kraft Heinz (0.95), Duke Energy (1.01), Motorola Solutions (1.04), Viacom (1.05), Stericycle (1.13), Clorox (1.49), Aetna (2.34), Regeneron (3.17).

U.S. IPO’s scheduled to price today: Clementia Pharmaceuticals (CMTA), Venator Materials (VNTR).

Equity conferences this week: UBS Transport Conference on Thu.

• Prudential Financial (PRU +0.73%) lost 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted operating EPS of $2.09, well below consensus of $2.70.
• Wyndham Worldwide (WYN -2.19%) rose 5% in after-hours trading after it said it will split up into two separate businesses, a hotel operation called Wyndham Hotel Group and a timeshare business called Wyndham Vacation.
• Oshkosh (OSK +5.36%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ at Drexel Hamilton LLC with a 12-month target price of $83.
• American International Group (AIG +0.64%) gained almost 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 operating EPS of $1.53, higher than consensus of $1.20.
• Hologic (HOLX -0.75%) slid nearly 5% in after-hours trading after it said it sees full-year revenue of $3.04 billion-$3.06 billion, below consensus of $3.07 billion.
• Central Garden & Pet Co (CENT -2.30%) jumped 12% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 62 cents, above consensus of 51 cents, and then said it now sees fiscal 2017 adjusted EPS of at least $1.44, above a May 3 estimate of at least $1.37.
• Molina Healthcare (MOH -0.99%) dropped over 7% in after-hours trading after it said it will stop selling Obamacare plans in Utah and Wisconsin in 2018 and will reduce its presence in Washington as it cuts 10% of its workforce, or 1,500 jobs by year-end amid restructuring efforts.
• Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO -0.68%) rallied 13% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 41 cents, well above consensus of 19 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2018 adjusted EPS to $1.95-$2.16 from a May 23 view of $1.40-$1.65.
• Sturm Ruger & Co. (RGR +0.09%) tumbled over 12% in after-hours trading after it said Q2 net sales declined -22% and Q2 EPS dropped to 57 cents from $1.22 a share y/y.
• Trinseo (TSE +1.20%) slumped over 13% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.39, well below consensus of $1.82, and then said it sees Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.10-$1.28, weaker than consensus of $1.78.
• SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG -1.93%) surged 20% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 55 cents, better than consensus of 37 cents, and then said it sees Q3 revenue of $155 million-$165 million, higher than consensus of $131.7 million.
• Health Insurance Innovations (HIIQ +0.19%) climbed 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 46 cents, above consensus of 34 cents, and then raised guidance on full-year adjusted EPS to $1.45 -$1.55 from a prior view of $1.40-$1.50.
• Century Aluminum (CENX +0.30%) dropped over 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 1 cent, much weaker than consensus of 22 cents.
• Fitbit (FIT -0.20%) rose nearly 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 revenue of $353.3 million. above consensus of $341.2 million.

Sep S&P 500 E-mini stock futures (ESU17 -0.03%) this morning are down -1.50 points (-0.06%). Wednesday’s closes: S&P 500 +0.05%, Dow Jones +0.24%, Nasdaq +0.32%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday closed slightly higher on strength in technology companies led by a 5% rally in Apple to a record high when it reported an upbeat revenue forecast and gains in energy stocks as crude oil prices rose +0.87%. A bearish factor was the comment from Cleveland Fed President Mester who said that gradual removal of accommodation is still required and that the markets can absorb a gradual balance sheet unwind by the Fed.

Sep 10-year T-note prices (ZNU17 +0.10%) this morning are up +0.5 of a tick. Wednesday’s closes: TYU7 -4, FVU7 -3. Sep 10-year T-notes on Wednesday closed lower on hawkish comments from Cleveland Fed President Mester who said the markets can absorb a gradual balance sheet unwind by the Fed and supply pressures after the Treasury announced that $62 billion of T-notes and T-bonds will be auctioned next week in the Treasury’s quarterly refunding.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.11%) this morning is up +0.136 (+0.15%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0016 (-0.13%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.16 (-0.14%). Wednesday’s closes: Dollar Index -0.207 (-0.22%), EUR/USD +0.0054 (+0.46%), USD/JPY +0.36 (+0.33%). The dollar index on Wednesday fell to a 1-1/4 year low and closed lower on technical selling and Washington political uncertainty. There was also strength in EUR/USD which climbed to 2-1/2 year high on speculation the ECB may announce as soon as next month’s policy meeting that it will begin to taper its asset purchases.

Sep crude oil (CLU17 +0.34%) this morning is up +17 cents (+0.34%). Sep gasoline (RBU17 -0.13%) is down -0.0042 (-0.26%). Wednesday’s closes: Sep WTI crude +0.43 (+0.87%), Sep gasoline -0.0165 (-0.99%). Sep crude oil and gasoline on Wednesday settled mixed. Crude oil prices rallied on the fall in the dollar index to a 1-1/4 year low and the -2.52 million bbl decline in EIA gasoline inventories to a 7-month low, a bigger decline than expectations of -1.0 million bbl. Crude oil prices were undercut by the -1.53 million bbl draw in EIA crude supplies, less than expectations of -3.0 million bbl, and the +0.2% increase in U.S. crude production in the week of Jul 28 to 9.43 million bpd, the most in 2 years.