Recent news flow lowers the probability of AT&T (T) closing its acquisition of Time Warner (TWX), Deutsche Bank analyst Bryan Kraft tells investors in a research note. Divesting either DirecTV or Turner are both unattractive options for AT&T, the analyst contends. He puts the probability of the deal closing at 50% right now. If the deal does not close, Time Warner would attract interest from potential suitors within the media industry or outside of it, Kraft writes. He notes, however, that regulatory opposition “could potentially jeopardize certain other potential suitors’ interest or ability to close.” Nonetheless, the analyst believes Time Warner’s stock price “would see meaningful upside in this scenario.” As a standalone company, Kraft sees the stock hitting $83 in the near-term but appreciating to $95 over the next 12 months. The analyst keeps a Buy rating on Time Warner while reducing his price target to $99 from $103. The shares yesterday closed down $1.45 to $87.05.