Before the Move: Analysts split if GM autonomous event can add fuel to rally - InvestingChannel

Before the Move: Analysts split if GM autonomous event can add fuel to rally

This Wednesday and Thursday, General Motors (GM) will be hosting investor events to review the company’s “vision for an autonomous future.” Ahead of the highly-anticipated events, Guggenheim analyst Emmanuel Rosner upgraded General Motors to Buy, while his peer at Bank of America Merrill Lynch argued that it may serve as a catalyst for “Big Bang upside to stock.” Not as bullish, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas told investors that while “the cars will drive themselves,” it may be difficult to exceed rising expectations for GM’s leadership in this hotly contested space. BUY GENERAL MOTORS: Last week, Guggenheim’s Rosner upgraded General Motors to Buy from Neutral and raised his price target on the shares to $52 from $48 ahead of the company’s event focused on its vision for an autonomous future and reflecting increased comfort around its 2018 outlook. The analyst argued that he expects General Motors to showcase the advanced status of its technology, which may give the company a competitive advantage in putting autonomous vehicles on the road and monetizing the ride. Further, Rosner told investors that his analysis shows a path to profitably win share of the U.S. ride hailing market by improving cost to just 80c/mile by 2025 through driverless operation, and offering this service for about $1/mile. There could be a “sizeable earnings opportunity” from mobility services for General Motors over the next 5-10 years, he contended. Additionally, in the nearer term, the analyst also believes that GM’s 2018 earnings outlook has been somewhat de-risked on the back of CEO Mary Barra’s recent comments confirming his view that the impact from its truck downtime would be significantly smaller than forecasted by market research firm IHS. Also bullish on General Motors was his peer at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Analyst John Murphy told investors this morning that he believes the company’s highly-anticipated investor event this coming Wednesday and Thursday will serve as the venue at which GM may provide incremental disclosure/information on its future technology portfolio. This could serve as a positive catalyst for the stock, he contended. Murphy noted that he expects GM to showcase its Cruise Anywhere AV-EV ride-hailing operation, which could demonstrate its relative leadership position in the autonomous/electric evolution. Additionally, he also expects GM to provide financials/estimates for its “future tech” operations and/or outline its strategy to realize value for its assets now, including potential ring-fencing of the business and offering of a stake. He reiterated a Buy rating on the shares. DIFFICULT TO TOP RISING EXPECTATIONS: Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas argued that while “yes, the cars will drive themselves,” it may be difficult to exceed rising expectations for General Motor’s leadership in this hotly contested space. Regarding expectations for the upcoming autonomous event, the analyst told investors that he expects to have 10-15 minutes of continuous driving in a GM Cruise Automation-equipped, all-electric Chevrolet Bolt through downtown San Francisco, and expects GM to express its timeline of deploying fleets of fully autonomous cars in a service within quarters, not years. Overall, Jonas pointed out that his recent downgrade of General Motors to Equal-Weight serves as both a recognition of the progress made by the company to improve the business’ strategic profile over the past few years as well as his concern that the market may be discounting that GM is in a leading position on shared/autonomous/electric mobility. PRICE ACTION: In early afternoon trading, shares of General Motors have gained almost 1% to $44.56. Year-to-date the stock has gained about 28%. “Before the Move” is The Fly’s recurring series of exclusive stories that identify potentially market moving events, along with analyst predictions, ahead of the news.