Allergan slides after Botox competitor data, though analysts remain bullish - InvestingChannel

Allergan slides after Botox competitor data, though analysts remain bullish

Shares of Allergan (AGN) are sliding after competitor Revance Therapeutics (RVNC) announced positive clinical results from two Phase 3 studies for its new drug to potentially treat frown lines. Commenting on the news, JPMorgan analyst Chris Schott argued that the selloff in Allergan shares is “very much overdone,” an opinion shared by his peer at Citi who added that he sees RT002 having limited impact on the company’s Botox franchise. BOTOX COMPETITOR DATA: Revance Therapeutics announced that the company’s next-generation neuromodulator Daxibotulinumtoxin for Injection, or RT002, delivered “positive” top-line results in alleviating moderate-to-severe glabellar lines, better known as “frown lines,” in two Phase 3 trials. If approved by the FDA, Revance believes RT002 would be the first neuromodulator with a long-acting duration of six months, the company said. Revance plans to submit a Biologics License Application in the first half of 2019 and, pending approval by the FDA, launch RT002 in the U.S. in 2020, it added. IMPRESSIVE DATA: After the announcement, Piper Jaffray analyst David Amsellem raised his price target for Revance Therapeutics to $51 from $28 saying the Phase 3 results for RT002 are “impressive.” The analyst told investors that he believes the company can “credibly claim” that treatment confers significant benefit for a sizable group of patients out to six months. How that will specifically look in the label and how Revance will be able to leverage that in terms of promotion to physicians and patients is still an open question, Amsellem believes. However, a differentiated label and a promotional strategy that reflects this dynamic is now looking likely, he added. The data should embolden the company to cast a wider net in terms of the pursuit of additional indications, both in aesthetic and therapeutic settings, he contended, reiterating an Overweight rating on Revance. ALLERGAN SELLOFF ‘OVERDONE’: In a research note of his own, JPMorgan’s Schott told investors that he views the recent pullback in Allergan’s shares as “very much overdone.” While today’s data from Revance highlights a likely longer-duration toxin competitor in 2020 and beyond, any impact to Allergan’s Botox franchise will be gradual and modest, Schott argued. Furthermore, he pointed out that Botox has a “very high bar for patient switching” given its “entrenched position in the market as well as the breadth of Allergan’s aesthetic portfolio.” The analyst reiterated an Overweight rating on Allergan shares. Voicing a similar opinion, Citi analyst Liav Abraham said that he does not view today’s headline data from Revance as a meaningful commercial threat to Allergan’s Botox franchise. Nonetheless, the analyst acknowledged that this could continue to raise concerns around the durability of Botox aesthetic revenues. Revance is likely to struggle to compete with Allergan’s commercial presence in the market, Abraham added, noting that Botox continues to maintain “the lion’s share” of the aesthetic botulinum toxin market, despite the presence of competitors. In his view, the commercial potential of RT002 is of more interest in therapeutic indications, but Revance is not pursuing this in therapeutic indications that compete with the key therapeutic indications in which Botox is marketed such as migraine or overactive bladder. He reiterated a Buy rating and $240 price target on Allergan shares. PRICE ACTION: In afternoon trading, shares of Allergan have dropped over 1% to $164.67, while Revance’s stock has jumped more than 36% to $35.45.