The economy is doing fine (as it was 16 months ago)

Lars Christensen is now doing videos at Patreon.  Check it out.

Also check out my new post at Econlog, where I express skepticism about whether Japan is a “safe haven”.

So how’s the economy doing over the past 16 months?  Here’s RGDP growth:

That’s better a bit better than before.

Here’s employment growth (annual % change):

That’s a bit worse than before.  Yet the unemployment rate is falling, as it has been for 8 1/2 years.

Here are real wages (deflated by the PCE):

Still rising modestly, as before.

Here is the trade deficit:

Worse than before, as expected.

Here’s the stock market:

The bull market continues.

Conclusion.  We are still in the Obama economy, with the possible exception of RGDP growth, which seems a bit stronger.  Otherwise things are about the same.

Prediction:  RGDP growth will stay around 3% for a couple more quarters (reflecting the corporate tax cuts and Fed easing), and then fall back below 2%.