While most investors anticipate Amgen (AMGN) could be shopping for smaller, bolt-on deals amid increased investor and press speculation that it is now an active acquirer, a larger deal with more near-term accretion potential may make more sense, Piper Jaffray analyst Christopher Raymond tells investors in a research note partially titled “Go Big or Go Home?” He thinks a potential Amgen for Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) deal “could actually make a lot of sense.” Even at levels approaching $200 per share for Alexion, Amgen “could make a strong argument for a business combination,” says Raymond. Alexion closed yesterday up $1.64 to $122.96. The analyst admits that some “bolt-on deals have been bandied around” by investors that “arguably make sense” for Amgen, including Biohaven Pharmaceutical and Amarin (AMRN). However, none of these options on their own get Amgen “to where they need to be to address the growth challenges of the legacy franchises,” Raymond argues. He thinks a better deal for the company may be Alexion, which would bring in a “long-tailed asset” with Soliris/Ultomiris, an area Amgen has already approached with its Soliris biosimilar effort. The analyst’s math has the potential deal being accretive next year, growing to 20%-plus accretion by 2024 for Amgen, even at a takeout price approaching $200 per Alexion share. Raymond keeps Overweight ratings on both companies.