Deutsche Bank analyst Chad Dillard downgraded Caterpillar to Hold from Buy and lowered his price target for the shares to $128 from $152. The stock in premarket trading is down 1%, or $1.50, to $138.69. The biggest risk to the bull case for Caterpillar is if its backlog growth turns negative, “and it is becoming increasingly clear that it will within this next quarter,” Dillard tells investors in a research note. Negative backlog growth historically precedes a negative earnings revision cycle by three months, the analyst points out. He notes that consensus estimates during these cycles typically get cut by 45% and the shares fall by 40% from the peak. Synchronized global growth “has collapsed,” the China Land Cycle is “rolling over” and will continue to weaken, Europe is slowing more than expected and the U.S. is “oversaturated with construction equipment,” according to Dillard.