This caught my eye:
President Donald Trump called on Congress to provide $2 trillion for U.S. infrastructure, seizing on the coronavirus outbreak to try once again to advance one of his longest-standing priorities.
Sorry, but when did we switch from talking about spending bills in the billions to spending bills in the trillions? When did trillions become a “thing”?
Right now, we are losing lots of jobs because people are unable to work. Fiscal stimulus won’t change that. When the coronavirus crisis is over, monetary policy will determine the level of employment.
This is madness.
Then consider this Bloomberg headline:
Economists Are Losing Hope in a ‘V-Shaped’ Post-Virus Recovery
Notice how March came in like a lion, with most economists (including me) predicting boom times ahead, and it’s going out like a lamb that’s stricken with coronavirus, with many economists (including me) worried about a sluggish recovery.
This is the most bizarre thing I’ve ever seen. As of yet, we don’t have a single monthly data point indicating any sort of recession (although I am pretty sure we are in one, and a deep one) and we are already speculating on the recovery! How is that even possible?
Maybe market monetarism has won. Maybe economists no longer rely on computer models fed with macro data, and now look to financial market indicators to predict the future path of the economy. If not, what’s your explanation? How are people already able to predict a slow recovery from a recession that is only just beginning?
PS. A sliver of good news?
China’s official manufacturing index rebounded to record an unexpected expansion in March, government data showed on Tuesday, after falling sharply in February as the coronavirus epidemic brought work to a halt across most of the country.
The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 52.0 during the month, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, from February’s record low figure of 35.7. The 50-point level separates contraction from expansion. The March reading came in well above economists’ forecasts of 45 compiled by Reuters.
At least good news for decent people; not sure how anti-Chinese bigots regard the news.
PPS. Ten days ago I predicted that Switzerland would have 5 times as many active cases as China by the end of March. It ended up being 6 times as many. Very soon it will be 10 times as many.
PPPS. In East Asia, bigotry against Westerners is on the rise.
PPPPS. For those interested in looking beyond burial urns, a scientific study looks at the extent of the undercount in Wuhan.