Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is expected to call a snap election this weekend, seeking to capitalize on polls that show his Liberal Party has enough public support to regain a majority in Parliament.
The prime minister is likely to trigger the start of the campaign this Sunday (August 15) with a visit to Governor General Mary Simon, Queen Elizabeth II’s representative in Canada. That would send Canadians to the polls on September 20.
Public opinion polls show the Liberals, in power since 2015, have 36% support, which is near the threshold needed to regain a majority in Parliament. Also factoring into Trudeau’s calculation is soft support for the opposition Conservative Party and its leader Erin O’Toole.
By calling the election less than two years since the last vote, Trudeau is hoping to cash in on what most Canadians regard as successful management of the pandemic. That includes a fiscal response that was among the most generous in the world and one of the fastest vaccine campaigns of any large country, with more than 60% of Canadians now fully vaccinated.
A victory would represent a redemption for the prime minister after his party lost the popular vote in the 2019 election. The Liberals currently have 155 of the 338 seats in the House of Commons and must win 15 more to have a majority of seats in the House of Commons.
Since the 2019 election, Trudeau has needed the help of other parties to pass legislation, allowing the opposition to set the policy agenda — though his pandemic fiscal packages have largely won cross-party support.
The mood among Canadians is improving. Consumer and business sentiment is hovering at record levels, while household net worth has risen by hundreds of billions of dollars due to a housing boom.