Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s ruling Liberal Party is in a statistical tie with the opposition Conservative Party as the federal election enters its home stretch.
The latest polling data sows that Trudeau will have a difficult time eking out even a narrow victory in the snap election he called hoping to regain a majority government in Parliament.
With advance ballots beginning this Friday (September 17), public opinion polls show the opposition Conservatives have 33% support compared with 31% for the incumbent Liberals and 19% for the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP), according to the latest Nanos Research Group poll.
If those numbers hold through the last 10 days of the campaign, Canada is facing another minority Parliament in which the government needs the support of another party to pass legislation. The Liberals could still win the most seats while losing the popular vote, which is what happened in the 2019 election.
The Nanos survey is based on a three-day rolling average and has a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.
Last week, Trudeau was attacked from all sides in a combative televised debate. The most decisive blow was landed by Conservative leader Erin O’Toole, who simultaneously criticized the prime minister’s record on fighting climate change and his motivation for triggering the September 20 vote.
The Conservatives won what could be decisive support from the popular premier of Quebec, the second most populous province in Canada.
“For the Quebec nation, Mr. O’Toole’s approach is a good one,” Premier Francois Legault said last week, warning that victory for any other party could prove “dangerous” for provincial relations with Ottawa.