Q1 Earnings Outlook - InvestingChannel

Q1 Earnings Outlook

Proprietary Data Insights

Financial Pros +$1B AUM Top Stock Searches Last Week


Tech’s Already Lost

Rivian (RIVN) lost more than 50% of its value in the last 8 weeks.

Peloton (PTON) is closing in on its IPO price.

If you look beyond the big cap tech names, you’ll find many of those high-growth momentum names already crashed.

That doesn’t mean they can’t fall further.

But for those looking for some reckoning of the new retail traders, they might be sorely mistaken.

You see, pundits predict these investors will lose the shirts in the coming pullback.

That seems silly.

For starters, many of these traders made their money by buying the market near the dead lows of March 2020. So everything they could lose is truly discretionary.

And these traders aren’t likely to cause any major selloff in Apple (APPL), Amazon (AMZN), or the like. They simply don’t have that kind of power.

What would it take to bring down those stocks?

Slower growth. Pure and simple. Or at least compressed margins.


Q1 Earnings Outlook

Key Data

  • Q1 earnings are expected to deliver high growth as we lap the pandemic.
  • Financials should perform quite well while energy names might be underestimated.
  • Omicron has brought down travel and leisure stocks from airlines to casinos.

Banks kick off Q4 earnings this week.

Here’s what you can expect this quarter.

High Level Estimates S&P 500 Companies (Source: Factset)

  • Q4 EPS growth rate of 21.7%.
  • Q4 revenue growth rate 20.9%
  • 56 companies issued negative EPS guidance and 37 issued positive guidance.

High growth rates in Q4 come as we begin to lap the Covid induced shutdowns.

That means companies will start to report more normalized growth as the year presses on.

Financials Rule

Despite joining the rest of the early selloff today, financials have been on fire.

At its peak, the S&P Financials ETF XLF was up almost 5.5% while the regional banks ETF KRE jumped almost 9%.

As we’ve noted before, low-interest rates add to bank loan margins. And with construction demand high for commercial, industrial, and residential, we expect this sector to provide plenty of upside surprises.

Don’t Forget Energy

Energy companies have seen the largest estimate increases as crude and natural gas prices rebounded from their brief selloffs.

High demand from industries continues despite large players like China flipping the switch on and off.

Omicron Weighs in

Analysts lowered estimates for many consumer discretionary stocks including Ceasar’s Entertainment (CZR) along with airline stocks as Omicron cases raged.

Airlines took it on the chin as massive cancellations and flight delays over the holidays created havoc at the airports.

The Big Questions

Here’s what we want to be answered:

  1. How well do the stay-at-home work trends hold up? Are companies leaning on Zoom (ZM) or are they expecting folks back in the office?
  2. Where can we expect growth in the next year in terms of volume?
  3. When do companies expect supply chain issues to ease?
  4. How are companies planning to implement price increases?
  5. What will human resource departments do to attract new talent?

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