Statement here.
1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
PCE core inflation was up 5.2% in January year-over-year and the FOMC revised up their projections.
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here starting at 2:30 PM ET.
Here are the projections. In December, most participants expected three rate hikes in 2022. Now, participants expect 7 rate hikes in 2022.
Wall Street forecasts are for GDP to barely increase in Q1 2022, and to be in the 2% to 3% range for 2022. This was a sharp reduction in Wall Street growth forecasts, and the FOMC lowered their 2022 forecast down significantly to similar growth rates.
| GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
| Mar 2022 | 2.5 to 3.0 | 2.1 to 2.5 | 1.8 to 2.0 | |
| Dec 2021 | 3.6 to 4.5 | 2.0 to 2.5 | 1.8 to 2.0 | |
The unemployment rate was at 3.8% in February. So, there was a slight reduction in the unemployment rate forecast for Q4 2022.
| Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
| Mar 2022 | 3.4 to 3.6 | 3.3 to 3.6 | 3.2 to 3.7 | |
| Dec 2021 | 3.4 to 3.7 | 3.2 to 3.6 | 3.2 to 3.7 | |
As of January 2022, PCE inflation was up 6.1% from January 2021. The FOMC revised up sharply their inflation projections for 2022.
| Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
| Mar 2022 | 4.1 to 4.7 | 2.3 to 3.0 | 2.1 to 2.4 | |
| Dec 2021 | 2.2 to 3.0 | 2.1 to 2.5 | 2.0 to 2.2 | |
PCE core inflation was up 5.2% in January year-over-year and the FOMC revised up their projections.
| Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
| Mar 2022 | 3.9 to 4.4 | 2.4 to 3.0 | 2.1 to 2.4 | |
| Dec 2021 | 2.5 to 3.0 | 2.1 to 2.4 | 2.0 to 2.2 | |