Inventory usually declines in the winter, and then increases in the spring. Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 12.3% since then.
Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.
This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
Last year inventory bottomed seasonally in April 2021 – very late in the year. This year, by this measure, inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March.
Inventory is still very low. Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is down 13.1% from 312 thousand, and compared to the same week in 2020, and inventory is down 63.9% from 749 thousand.
One of the keys will be to watch the year-over-year change each week to see if the declines are decreasing. Here is a table of the year-over-year change by week since the beginning of the year.
| Week Ending | YoY Change |
|---|---|
| 12/31/2021 | -30.0% |
| 1/7/2022 | -26.0% |
| 1/14/2022 | -28.6% |
| 1/21/2022 | -27.1% |
| 1/28/2022 | -25.9% |
| 2/4/2022 | -27.9% |
| 2/11/2022 | -27.5% |
| 2/18/2022 | -25.8% |
| 2/25/2022 | -24.9% |
| 3/4/2022 | -24.2% |
| 3/11/2022 | -21.7% |
| 3/18/2022 | -21.7% |
| 3/25/2022 | -19.0% |
| 4/1/2022 | -17.6% |
| 4/8/2022 | -14.8% |
| 4/15/2022 | -13.1% |
